Not that I'm suggesting for amoment that it isn't, you understand.
This is more of a technical question.
Given all of the uncertainties relating to natural variability,
decadal cycles and the like, the ACIA in 2004 went no further than
saying (to paraphrase) 'This looks like an anthropogenically-induced
decline from GW, but we can't say so for certain'.
Things have moved fast since then, in terms of the rate of summer
decline. Has the process gone far enough yet for us to say,
definitively, that this must be an effect of AGW? Is there a numerical/
statistical analysis which places recent losses beyond the possible
bounds of natural variability + error?
Finally, is there any known reasonable alternative hypothesis for the
rate of change in the summer sea ice extent/area?
If it is clear that the uncertainty about the causes of Arctic sea ice
decline has diminished to the point of near certainty, we would then
be strongly placed to shout loudly on all blogs, ours and those of
skeptics; 'Where's the ice?'
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