On 02/01/2008, Michael Tobis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> It seems to me that future catastrophe appears absurdly undervalued
> because there is a uniform uncertainty about the future built into the
> system.
>
> Morally, a behavior that has 100% chance of killing somebody 5000
> years from now is not different than a behavior that has 100% chance
> of killing someone in 500 years. Economically, the choice is clearly
> to defer the killing further to the future. It seems to me, thus, that
> the discount rate acts as an uncertainty discount, **preventing** me
> from effectively making the statement that, discount rate aside, I am
> certain that the far-future consequences of this action are tantamount
> to homicide and so I have to resue to do it.
I don't think this argument works. *morally* its bad to kill people,
but there is no price attached (unless your moral system works with
blood-money). If you are attempting to attach economics to people
being killed, then you are accepting that there is a price. Economists
then tend to measure this price in terms of what people will pay to
avoid death - health care, seatbelts, road improvements, that kind of
stuff. You end up with inconsistent numbers, of course. You also end
up with 1st world lives being worth more than 3rd world, which causes
trouble.
-W.
> Happy New Year all!
I can agree to that.
--
William M. Connolley | www.wmconnolley.org.uk | 07985 935400
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