On 17/02/2008, Michael Tobis <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Seriously, the runaway term is used to describe a planet where the
> water vapor feedback is such that entire ocean evaporates and the
> planet becomes completely unviable. This is believed to be the story
> of the evolution of Venus.
>
> I have seen formal calculations about this; apparently we are a bit
> too far from the sun for this to happen here, but not by a huge
> margin. If the sun warms up just a little bit it will happen. If the
> earth were a cylinder and not a sphere, hence tropical everywhere, the
> oceans would boil away post haste. Unfortunately I didn't track this
> down on the first attempt.
>
> (It's a Ray P question if there ever was one, though I don't think he
> was the author of the definitive analysis of the question if I recall
> right.)
I doubt there are formal calculations that really *prove* anything,
though there may well be sensible approximations and assumptions that
support this conclusion. After all, we do not *know* bounds on what
the climate sensitivity is with *certainty*, and a high enough
sensitivity would generate this behaviour. It was indeed Ray P who
IIRC expressed some interest and/or surprise at our model results,
when I mentioned them on RC once.
James
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