I talked to some people around here about that, they say they had
wondered about this but not come to any conclusion:
in particular, are the mecanisms causing the spread in CS (mainly
tropical low clouds, as apparently they say in dufresne & bony 2008
(J.of Clim)- for equilibrium CS) the same as the ones causing the
spread in "natural" variability ?
intuitevely, more variability means greater feedback loops - but it
also depends on the time-scale of these feedbacks, and...
allright - i'll keep on medidating on this...
On Apr 1, 3:31 am, jdannan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> ICE wrote:
> > hi,
>
> >> Variability is the flip-side
> >> of sensitivity here, since a planet that varies by 0.3C in the absence
> >> of any external forcing is likely to vary by rather a lot when it
> >> actually *is* forced!
>
> > i like this point. Do you actually see that, among the different
> > climate models (more "natural" variability meaning greater
> > sensitivity ?)
>
> Off the top of my head, I don't know if anyone has looked. It is
> complicated by the different ocean heat uptakes of the different GCMs,
> and the fact that their range of sensitivity (and natural variability)
> isn't all that large anyway (the 0.3C originally postulated is way
> outside their range). It's a sort of "other things being equal"
> statement and other things are rarely precisely equal! I'd expect to see
> it more clearly across a range of slab-ocean models (such as CPDN or our
> own ensembles) where the ocean damping is constant by construction and
> the ensemble size is big enough for the signal to emerge above the noise.
>
> James
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