ICE wrote:
>
> I talked to some people around here about that, they say they had
> wondered about this but not come to any conclusion:
> in particular, are the mecanisms causing the spread in CS (mainly
> tropical low clouds, as apparently they say in dufresne & bony 2008
> (J.of Clim)- for equilibrium CS) the same as the ones causing the
> spread in "natural" variability ?
That's true enough, but the OP was talking about a change in global temp
of the order of 0.3C over 30y time scale. That implies a substantial
sustained radiation imbalance. Of course this doesn't *prove* that such
a model would have high sensitivity, but I'd be surprised if anyone
could construct a (reasonably plausible) model that behaved in this way
that did *not* also have high sensitivity.
It's a bit like using paleoclimate (eg Last Glacial Maximum) to estimate
sensitivity to 2xCO2. No-one in their right mind would expect the
sensitivities (here I'm using the term more generally as temp response
divided by forcing) to be *precisely* the same for these two cases, but
equally it is hard to imagine them being *wildly* different. However,
the models cover a narrow enough range of results that it's hard to
argue convincingly that any of them are necessarily badly biased in this
respect (in some cases this reticence may be partly political in nature).
James
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