I used the CRU dataset for calculating trend over the specified periods. The critical point - whatever source is used - is that start and end points influence trend estimation because of large interannual variation that is mostly due to ENSO. I believe that the trend estimated by Kyle Swanson this year at realclimate and by Thompson et al 2009 - about 0.08 to 0.12 degrees C/decade is about right. This seems to make the IPCC prediction of a continuing increase over the next few decades of 0.2 degrees C unlikely along with the higher model projections(up to 6 degrees) this century.
I do not understand what your point is? That the rate of recent warming is 0.13 degrees C/decade? All of the various methodologies have evolved over the years as methods improve - what I see is that the results from all of the methodologies are converging as they should with a better understanding. To my mind - the problem is no longer scientific but what policy response can best and most quickly achieve reductions in emissions. I agree with the Lomberg approach. I will happily write to Inhoffe to say this - got an email? On Dec 27, 9:04 am, Eric Swanson <[email protected]> wrote: > Notice that the quote from Christy is dated May 14, 2003. > > http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11540 > > John Christy has been proven wrong repeatedly. That particular quote > came out before I showed that there was a problem with the UAH TLT > over the Antarctic. One of the other groups which now produce a data > set from the MSU (Remote Sensing Systems, RSS) excludes all data over > the Antarctic (that is, poleward of 70S) the reason being the high > elevations there. RSS also excludes data from other locations with > high elevations. > > Curisty's latest results show a global trend of 0.13 C/decade, but > 0.19C/decade for the Northern Hemisphere and only 0.06C/decade for the > Southern Hemisphere. Could it be Christy's results are wrong for the > SH because of the problems over the Antarctic? Is the South Pole > really cooling as his data shows, -0.06 C/decade? Is there a problem > with the ozone layer down there? > > http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt > > Oh, BTW, Christy fudges the data over the poles, interpolating to fill > in the missing data poleward of 82 degrees. Really now, isn't the > same complaint as has been directed at the CRU, only we know for a > fact he's doing it? > > I'll believe you are serious when you write Inhoffe and alert him to > the problem... > > E. S. > -------------------------------------------------------- > On Dec 25, 6:14 pm, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Some major uncertainties in climate science > [cut] > > > There is a satellite based temperature record of the lower > > atmosphere. This has global coverage and a trend that is less than > > the surface station methodologies. > > > “Using NOAA satellite readings of temperatures in the lower > > atmosphere, scientists at The University of Alabama in Huntsville > > (UAH) produceda dataset that shows global atmospheric warming at the > > rate of about 0.07 degrees C(about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) per > > decade since November 1978,” said Dr.John Christy, who compiled the > > comparison data. “That works out to a global warming trend of about > > 0.7 degrees centigrade over 100 years. That's a definite warming > > trend, which is probably due in part to human influences. But it's > > substantially less than the warming forecast by most climate models, > > and it isn't entirely out of the range of climate change we might > > expect from natural causes.” > > > The rate of recent warming is of critical importance in evaluating the > > social and environmental risk of global warming – and it is probably > > the easiest aspect of climate science to spin in the required > > direction. > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
