In case you haven't noticed, I was pointing to your reference to a quote by John Christy. In that quote, Christy claimed the trend for the satellite data was "about 0.07 degrees C (about 0.13 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade". That value is about half of that which Christy's latest results indicate, which may still be understating the rate of warming.
Also, taking 10 year periods to calculate trends is basically wrong. Climate trends are usually defined over longer periods, often 30 years. Using arbitrary 10 year periods can present distorted results, as there are short term variations, such as the El Nino/La Nina oscillations or the 11 year (mol) sunspot cycles. Your choice of 1998 as a start date is a perfect example of the problem, as 1998 was an unusually warm year in the longer term record. Calculating a trend with that start date will obviously produce a lower trend. As you note, this has been discussed on RealClimate and elsewhere. Why did you bring it up in your reply? Are you attempting to deflect attention away from the fact that you used an old quote from Christy, one which understates the trend? Where did you find the quote which you pasted into your post? Was it a denialist web site and if so, which one? Lomborg is not an atmospheric scientist and his writings are full of errors. His latest is no better. http://www.lomborg-errors.dk/ Lomborg has repeatedly claimed that spending money to address climate change results in spending less resources fore poorer nations. He forgets that the problem is ultimately population multiplied by the consumption per capita. Attempts to raise the standard of living of the masses in poor countries will mean much greater environmental problems, as well as further increases in population. Ultimately, the Earth's human population is likely to hit a situation, such as Peak Oil, which will result in population crash, that is a massive die off. Claiming that the world's poor should rise to the level of wealth of Western nations is dancing around this real problem and isn't going to fix anything in the long run... Inhofe is one of the senators from Oklahoma, if you didn't know. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P70SlEqX7oY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJFZ88EH6i4 E. S. --------------------- On Dec 26, 8:09 pm, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote: > I used the CRU dataset for calculating trend over the specified > periods. The critical point - whatever source is used - is that start > and end points influence trend estimation because of large interannual > variation that is mostly due to ENSO. I believe that the trend > estimated by Kyle Swanson this year at realclimate and by Thompson et > al 2009 - about 0.08 to 0.12 degrees C/decade is about right. This > seems to make the IPCC prediction of a continuing increase over the > next few decades of 0.2 degrees C unlikely along with the higher model > projections(up to 6 degrees) this century. > > I do not understand what your point is? That the rate of recent > warming is 0.13 degrees C/decade? > > All of the various methodologies have evolved over the years as > methods improve - what I see is that the results from all of the > methodologies are converging as they should with a better > understanding. > > To my mind - the problem is no longer scientific but what policy > response can best and most quickly achieve reductions in emissions. I > agree with the Lomberg approach. I will happily write to Inhoffe to > say this - got an email? > > On Dec 27, 9:04 am, Eric Swanson <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Notice that the quote from Christy is dated May 14, 2003. > > >http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=11540 -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
