The problem with these kinds of studies is that they exhibit
correlation, not cause and effect. We don't know which came first,
temperature rise or CO2 concentration rise. In fact, much of the data
suggests that temperature rise precedes CO2 rise by 200 to 800 years in
some cases.
Alastair wrote:
My spin is that without the Arctic sea ice, which did not exist in the
Pliocene, then we will get an abruppt rise of between 2 to 4C. The
rise will be even higher the closer to the North Pole you live.
Arctic sea ice is a symptom, not a cause. Yes, the albedo changes,
but has little effect on sea temperatures at northern latitudes.
Even before this newsgroup was set up, I was warning that scientists
were underestimating the effects of global warming. Now, what they are
saying, tends to agree with what I said, but the change in attitude
has come so quickly, it makes me fear that the change in climate may
also be quick. OK we will get an abrupt climate change when the sea
ice goes, but now it seems that the Greenland ice sheet's life
expectancy is decreasing exponentially, and doubt about the survival
of the ice shelves in Antarctica are also growing.
The fact that scientists and politicians rapidly change their
conclusions and interpretations of data does not mean climate change
will be rapid as well. Climate change is what it is.
We still don't know what's happening with Greenland and Antarctica.
Some parts are cooling, some parts are warming. Some glaciers are
receding some are advancing. Time will tell.
Hayduke
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