David B. Benson wrote:
On Jan 17, 9:03 am, Michael Lewis <[email protected]> wrote:
The problem with these kinds of studies ...
The relationship between CO2 and climate has been
well-understood for over 30 year now.
Charney et al. 1979 NRC/NAS report:
http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12181&page=R1
This turns out not to be the case. To whit:
"Since carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the heat budget of
the atmosphere, it is reasonable to suppose that continued increases
would affect climate."
"However, we have not examined anew the many uncertainties in these
projections, such as their implicit assumptions with regard to the
workings of the world economy and the role of the biosphere in the
carbon cycle. These impose an uncertainty beyond that arising from our
necessarily imperfect knowledge of the manifold and complex climatic
system of the earth.
"We have examined with care all known negative feedback mechanisms,
such as increase in low or middle cloud amount, and have concluded that
the oversimplifications and inaccuracies in the models are not likely to
have vitiated the principal conclusion that there will be appreciable
warming. The known negative feedback mechanisms can reduce the warming,
but they do not appear to be so strong as the positive moisture feedback."
Notice the initial assumption of a linear relationship between CO2
concentration and "climate." We know this is not true.
Notice that this paper is based on mathematical climate models,
using 1979 vintage computers. My iPhone has more computing power.
Notice also that this analysis is confined to atmospheric physics.
There is no consideration of other geophysical factors known to affect
climate and the larger meta-patterns of climate fluctuation.
Interesting historical study, saying much about why "global warming"
has such a hold on the imagination today. Not a document to plan the
global economy by, however.
Hayduke
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http://hayduke2000.blogspot.com/
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