The temperature this year will depend a great deal on ENSO, NAO, SAM etc. I bet it will be cooler in a year (2010?2011?) with a La Nina.
On Jan 23, 11:06 am, Eric Swanson <[email protected]> wrote: > Robert, > > On Jan 22, 3:45 pm, Robbo <[email protected]> wrote: > > > Deqar Eric, > > > I have unsubscribed using both my business and personal emails??? Not > > sure what to do next. > > You might try changing your profile to stop e-mail delivery. > > > The point was to make an intercomparison of temperature datasets. > > Complex scientific techniques often require bedding in before they can > > be depended on. I point to the early cooling bias caused by some > > faulty instruments in the Argo project for instance or the multiple > > problems in satellite solar irradiation measurements. > > > The statistical outlier in the datasets is GISSTEMP if anything if you > > have a look at the numbers in the link - but all the methods agree > > reasonably well. > > What about the other efforts to analyze the MSU data set? Aren't you > forgetting those? Did you read the reference to the CCSP SAP 1.2 > which I posted? > > > It can hardly be cherry picking - rml (read my lips) what I am saying > > is the datasets are all much of a muchness. > > > Again not sure what your point is? The Hale cycle of solar magnetic > > reversal has something to do with climate? I have wondered about that > > in relation to the 20 to 30 year periods - as in the current non > > warming - of ocean and climate states. You have to make the > > distinction, however, between hypothosis and analysis. If I were you > > - I would worry more about the prospects for the Schwabe solar cycle > > 24. The smallest of any cycle since 1928 – hmm. I keep trying to be > > helpful and educate you. > > >http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29may_noaaprediction.htm > > That reference was from May 2009. I notice that the latest data > indicates that the solar cycle is beginning to pick up a bit of > steam. Perhaps we may not see that long period of cold you referenced > after all. Also notice that the last solar minimum occurred in 1996, > which just happened to be a very warm year. Any bets on how warm 2010 > will turn out to be? > > http://www.solen.info/solar/solcycle.html > > > The criticisms of the McLean et al paper were on the use of the first > > derivative of temperature. As an engineer you must understand > > calculus and realise that that detrends data. But it enables an > > approach to be made to quantifying the correlation of temperature > > variation with ENSO. All the paper says is that ENSO has a huge > > influence on global temperature variability. Hardly a conceptual > > breakthrough comparable to the Special Theory of Relativity say – but > > it puts a number to the ENSO influence. > > The McLean et al. paper appears to be garbage. > > http://tamino.wordpress.com/2009/07/24/old-news/ > > http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2009/07/surprising-conclusions-fro... > > http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/Foster_et%20al... > > > The speculative aspect – and scientists are permitted to be > > speculative in conclusions – was that the well known shift in > > frequency and intensity of El Niño after 1976 may have had an > > influence on the global temperature trend. Compare this for instance > > to Dr Latif’s comment I quoted elsewhere about oceans contributing 50% > > of the recent atmospheric warming. You are showing a lack of > > objectivity that is worrying – if all else fails call me a > > ‘denialist’. > > Scientists are permitted to present a hypothesis which may explain > data and to propose methods to test that hypothesis. Speculation is > what Wall Street does with your money. > > > I don’t deny anything. I even agree that it is a bad idea to change > > the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere. And I will do whatever I > > damn well like – as long as the moderate moderator doesn’t step in. > > > Cheers > > Robert > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Global Change ("globalchange") newsgroup. Global Change is a public, moderated venue for discussion of science, technology, economics and policy dimensions of global environmental change. Posts will be admitted to the list if and only if any moderator finds the submission to be constructive and/or interesting, on topic, and not gratuitously rude. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalchange
