Dear Mr. Haresh, We absolutely enjoy reading your articles. Majority of the group members feel the same. Please keep contributing.
Regards On Tue, Apr 7, 2009 at 12:26 PM, Haresh Soneji <[email protected]>wrote: > if the group really thinks so, i will unsubscribe immediately. > HS > > On Tue, Apr 7, 2009 at 8:47 AM, rahul frm pune > <[email protected]>wrote: > >> Dear Mr Cut & Paste, >> >> Why you harrasing readers by your nonsense mails? >> >> please contribute something worthwhile and dont attack with lot of junk >> articles >> >> thanks >> >> Rahul >> >> --- On *Sat, 4/4/09, Haresh Soneji <[email protected]>* wrote: >> >> >> From: Haresh Soneji <[email protected]> >> Subject: {GS} CNBC TV18 Column -- Market-o-logy -- Playing With The >> Consumer >> To: >> Date: Saturday, 4 April, 2009, 12:58 AM >> >> >> http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/cnbc-tv18-analyst-markets/playing-with-the-consumer/391847 >> Column: Market-O-Logy >> >> Playing With The Consumer >> >> "Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more >> urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government." >> - Milton Friedman >> >> *By Haresh Soneji, CNBC-TV18* >> >> >> >> The Indian consumer has spoken, once again. She/he lacks confidence. But, >> nobody seems to be listening. The equity market seems to be giving thumbs up >> to global developments, India Inc. seems to have increased output >> anticipating a revival in demand and the government is busy with its own >> political agenda. The result is simple – no one is listening to the Indian >> consumer. What does the consumer have to say? Nothing great actually. The >> March survey reveals a strong undercurrent of fear in the minds of the >> Indian consumer. Weakening optimism about economic and personal finance >> conditions and deepening pessimism about employment conditions seem to be >> the key reasons for the massive decline in sentiments. This is reflected >> from the CNBC TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index for March, >> which fell another 5.6% over Feb. At 73.5 levels, it’s the lowest number >> since the index was constituted in Jan ’08. But, who cares? >> >> >> >> This monthly index is the world’s largest consumer confidence index based >> on nearly 10,000 face-to-face interviews from respondents across 15 cities. >> Across the world, consumer confidence is a lead indicator on economic >> conditions. It should be true for India too. In India, the consumer is >> worried about the employment conditions and job security. Confidence levels >> on employment conditions dipped 10% month-on-month, while job security >> confidence in March dropped 16% odd over Feb. So, if the consumer is not >> sure about his future income, She/he would rather save than spend. It’s >> simple. Isn’t it? Yet, no one seems to be listening. >> >> >> >> India Inc. is focused on increasing supply rather than keeping a tab on >> demand. This is evident with the rise in manufacturing days and also the >> output. Business confidence survey conducted by National Council of Applied >> Economic Research (NCAER) is on its way up, in contrast with consumer >> confidence. A sharp contradiction here means that if the consumer is not >> buying, inventories may pile up again. And India Inc. is aware of the >> consumer trend. At a private equity event in Goa during the weekend, Roopa >> Purushothaman, MD, Future Capital Research said, “Consumer confidence is >> down and could be affected by any fresh news on unemployment and deflation.” >> This is in line with the results of CNBC TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer >> Confidence Index. >> >> >> >> Having said that, the consumer spending confidence component in the CNBC >> TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index rose 10% in March as >> compared to Feb. But, that doesn’t read much. The only way to read the >> positive number in the consumer spending confidence is a decline in >> pessimism levels and not a trend reversal. This could be attributed to the >> government efforts to prop up demand. Also, the positive sentiment is >> largely evident in Tier III towns and continues to remain negative in metros >> and most Tier I cities. Titan’s MD Bhaskar Bhatt confirmed this on CNBC >> TV18. He said, “The Top 8 cities underperformed rest of India. There is a >> general reluctance to spend on discretionary items.” >> >> >> >> So the big question is when India Inc. is aware of likely consumer >> decision, why is it building up manufacturing? India Inc. appears to be >> skeptical yet optimistic. Roopa explained to the audience that the Jan-Mar >> quarter saw sequential growth reviving. But unless, year on year growth >> stabilizes, the extent of outright declines could be over. This could be >> seen stabilizing towards the beginning of the third quarter. >> >> >> >> This skeptical confidence from India Inc. seems to be another source of >> fuel to the ongoing equity rally. The successful G20 summit is the other >> reason. Before the G20 meet, legendary investor George Soros wrote that the >> world may fall into depression, if the G20 summit failed. The G20 submit >> last week pledged another $1.1tn to save the world from the financial mess. >> Both, capital availability and cross border trade are now eased to help the >> consumer spend. >> >> >> >> Bulls around the globe are shouting at the top of their voice – the worst >> is over. This is the beginning of the new rally. But, that may just be an >> illusion. The current rally in the markets – commodity and equity – is all >> but reflation trade. And traders betting on the world reviving soon due to >> the stimulus spending by governments could fall flat on their feet and lose >> a lot of money. >> >> >> >> The measures taken at ‘saving the world G20 summit’ will definitely be >> inflationary without actually solving the crises. That could be the root >> cause of another crises. Timothy Geithner’s plan is flawed and is another >> financial bubble say veteran experts and economists. We are living in >> uncertain times. Is the world saved from The Great Depression 2? Only time >> will tell. >> >> >> >> But the wise still are uncertain. At the CNBC TV18 CFO awards a few weeks >> back V Balakrishnan, CFO, Infosys revealed a gem when he said, “People says >> Cash is King. I would say Cash is God.” If you have cash you are God and for >> God’s sake, save your cash and invest wisely. >> >> >> >> When I messaged Ramesh Damani last week asking him about the ongoing rally >> he replied, “Bear market rallies are like thundering herds of elephants. >> They will trample anyone in its way and so, is this rally – strong, >> powerful, and global. The good news is that it still has legs and may >> surprise on the upside.” >> >> >> >> I rest my case. >> >> >> >> *Disclosure:* The author is not permitted to trade and/or invest into the >> equity market directly or indirectly, apart from investing (long only) in >> mutual fund products. His equity exposure is only to the extent of ESOPs >> granted by the employer. >> >> >> >> -- >> Best Regards, >> Haresh Soneji >> >> +++++++++++++++++++++ >> END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE >> "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The >> rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a >> right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for >> her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her >> every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. >> With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't." >> +++++++++++++++++++++ >> >> ------------------------------ >> Unlimited freedom, unlimited storage. Get it now Haresh Soneji >> >> +++++++++++++++++++++ >> END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE >> "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The >> rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a >> right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for >> her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her >> every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. >> With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't." >> +++++++++++++++++++++ >> >> >> >> >> <http://in.rd.yahoo.com/tagline_mail_2/*http://help.yahoo.com/l/in/yahoo/mail/yahoomail/tools/tools-08.html/> > > -- Salman Khan Blog: salmanspeaks.co.nr Phone +919350159178 --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
