if the group really thinks so, i will unsubscribe immediately. HS On Tue, Apr 7, 2009 at 8:47 AM, rahul frm pune <[email protected]>wrote:
> Dear Mr Cut & Paste, > > Why you harrasing readers by your nonsense mails? > > please contribute something worthwhile and dont attack with lot of junk > articles > > thanks > > Rahul > > --- On *Sat, 4/4/09, Haresh Soneji <[email protected]>* wrote: > > > From: Haresh Soneji <[email protected]> > Subject: {GS} CNBC TV18 Column -- Market-o-logy -- Playing With The > Consumer > To: > Date: Saturday, 4 April, 2009, 12:58 AM > > > http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/cnbc-tv18-analyst-markets/playing-with-the-consumer/391847 > Column: Market-O-Logy > > Playing With The Consumer > > "Many people want the government to protect the consumer. A much more > urgent problem is to protect the consumer from the government." > - Milton Friedman > > *By Haresh Soneji, CNBC-TV18* > > > > The Indian consumer has spoken, once again. She/he lacks confidence. But, > nobody seems to be listening. The equity market seems to be giving thumbs up > to global developments, India Inc. seems to have increased output > anticipating a revival in demand and the government is busy with its own > political agenda. The result is simple – no one is listening to the Indian > consumer. What does the consumer have to say? Nothing great actually. The > March survey reveals a strong undercurrent of fear in the minds of the > Indian consumer. Weakening optimism about economic and personal finance > conditions and deepening pessimism about employment conditions seem to be > the key reasons for the massive decline in sentiments. This is reflected > from the CNBC TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index for March, > which fell another 5.6% over Feb. At 73.5 levels, it’s the lowest number > since the index was constituted in Jan ’08. But, who cares? > > > > This monthly index is the world’s largest consumer confidence index based > on nearly 10,000 face-to-face interviews from respondents across 15 cities. > Across the world, consumer confidence is a lead indicator on economic > conditions. It should be true for India too. In India, the consumer is > worried about the employment conditions and job security. Confidence levels > on employment conditions dipped 10% month-on-month, while job security > confidence in March dropped 16% odd over Feb. So, if the consumer is not > sure about his future income, She/he would rather save than spend. It’s > simple. Isn’t it? Yet, no one seems to be listening. > > > > India Inc. is focused on increasing supply rather than keeping a tab on > demand. This is evident with the rise in manufacturing days and also the > output. Business confidence survey conducted by National Council of Applied > Economic Research (NCAER) is on its way up, in contrast with consumer > confidence. A sharp contradiction here means that if the consumer is not > buying, inventories may pile up again. And India Inc. is aware of the > consumer trend. At a private equity event in Goa during the weekend, Roopa > Purushothaman, MD, Future Capital Research said, “Consumer confidence is > down and could be affected by any fresh news on unemployment and deflation.” > This is in line with the results of CNBC TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer > Confidence Index. > > > > Having said that, the consumer spending confidence component in the CNBC > TV18 Boston Analytics Consumer Confidence Index rose 10% in March as > compared to Feb. But, that doesn’t read much. The only way to read the > positive number in the consumer spending confidence is a decline in > pessimism levels and not a trend reversal. This could be attributed to the > government efforts to prop up demand. Also, the positive sentiment is > largely evident in Tier III towns and continues to remain negative in metros > and most Tier I cities. Titan’s MD Bhaskar Bhatt confirmed this on CNBC > TV18. He said, “The Top 8 cities underperformed rest of India. There is a > general reluctance to spend on discretionary items.” > > > > So the big question is when India Inc. is aware of likely consumer > decision, why is it building up manufacturing? India Inc. appears to be > skeptical yet optimistic. Roopa explained to the audience that the Jan-Mar > quarter saw sequential growth reviving. But unless, year on year growth > stabilizes, the extent of outright declines could be over. This could be > seen stabilizing towards the beginning of the third quarter. > > > > This skeptical confidence from India Inc. seems to be another source of > fuel to the ongoing equity rally. The successful G20 summit is the other > reason. Before the G20 meet, legendary investor George Soros wrote that the > world may fall into depression, if the G20 summit failed. The G20 submit > last week pledged another $1.1tn to save the world from the financial mess. > Both, capital availability and cross border trade are now eased to help the > consumer spend. > > > > Bulls around the globe are shouting at the top of their voice – the worst > is over. This is the beginning of the new rally. But, that may just be an > illusion. The current rally in the markets – commodity and equity – is all > but reflation trade. And traders betting on the world reviving soon due to > the stimulus spending by governments could fall flat on their feet and lose > a lot of money. > > > > The measures taken at ‘saving the world G20 summit’ will definitely be > inflationary without actually solving the crises. That could be the root > cause of another crises. Timothy Geithner’s plan is flawed and is another > financial bubble say veteran experts and economists. We are living in > uncertain times. Is the world saved from The Great Depression 2? Only time > will tell. > > > > But the wise still are uncertain. At the CNBC TV18 CFO awards a few weeks > back V Balakrishnan, CFO, Infosys revealed a gem when he said, “People says > Cash is King. I would say Cash is God.” If you have cash you are God and for > God’s sake, save your cash and invest wisely. > > > > When I messaged Ramesh Damani last week asking him about the ongoing rally > he replied, “Bear market rallies are like thundering herds of elephants. > They will trample anyone in its way and so, is this rally – strong, > powerful, and global. The good news is that it still has legs and may > surprise on the upside.” > > > > I rest my case. > > > > *Disclosure:* The author is not permitted to trade and/or invest into the > equity market directly or indirectly, apart from investing (long only) in > mutual fund products. His equity exposure is only to the extent of ESOPs > granted by the employer. > > > > -- > Best Regards, > Haresh Soneji > > +++++++++++++++++++++ > END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE > "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The > rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a > right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for > her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her > every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. > With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't." > +++++++++++++++++++++ > > ------------------------------ > Unlimited freedom, unlimited storage. Get it now > > > > <http://in.rd.yahoo.com/tagline_mail_2/*http://help.yahoo.com/l/in/yahoo/mail/yahoomail/tools/tools-08.html/> -- Best Regards, Haresh Soneji +++++++++++++++++++++ END PIECE - CRY PLEDGE "Before anything else, I'm an Indian. And so is this little child. The rights I enjoy as a citizen of this free country are hers too. She has a right to be free. She has a right to be happy. But I'm going to fight for her because she has the right to be a child. I'm going to fight for her every single day, every single moment. With my skills. With my resources. With my heart. I'm going to fight for her because I can. And she can't." +++++++++++++++++++++ --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups ""GLOBAL SPECULATORS"" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/globalspeculators?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
