HDFC's 29% growth in retail loan book defies slowdown

*Higher reliance on bank borrowing in Q2 impacts net interest income but
trend likely to reverse*
Double digit growth<http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Growth>
in
times like this is elusive, unless one is looking at pharmaceutical or
technology companies. Despite news on slowing property sales, mortgage
major Housing Development Finance Corporation
(HDFC<http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Hdfc>)
has reported double digit growth in loan book and profit in the September
quarter. The 22% growth in HDFC's loan book (inclusive of loans sold) has
been largely driven by a 29% growth in the retail book. Loans to
individuals during the second quarter of FY14  grew by 26% in the second
quarter, after adjusting for loans sold.

Adjusting for loans sold, HDFC's loan book has grown by 19% year-on-year.
Asset quality too has remained stable and is not showing any sign of
stress, at least in the individual segment.

Keki Mistry, CEO of HDFC says the loan growth has been driven by the
salaried class and the average loan amount during the quarter is Rs 21.9
lakh, which has remained stable sequentially. However, unbelievable it may
sound, a lot of salaried Indians are buying homes even in these tough times
and HDFC expects to grow its loan book by 18-20% in the foreseeable future.

The market was disappointed by HDFC's net interest income (NII) of Rs 1460
crore, as consensus estimates were factoring in Rs 1,590 crore. According
to Emkay Global, the lower than expected NII was driven by 11 basis point
sequential contraction in calculated net interest margins versus its
expectations of flat NIMs.  "Driven by lower NII, the operating profit at
Rs1650 crore was lower against consensus estimtes of Rs 1730 crore."

The decline in net interest income was driven by the higher interest
expenses, which HDFC believes will come down over the coming quarters.
During the quarter, the mortgage major has had to rely onbank
borrowing<http://www.business-standard.com/search?type=news&q=Bank+Borrowing>
rather
than bonds, which is why its profitability has been affected. Mistry
expects this to change and NIMs to remain above 4% and spreads at 2.3%
levels.  Operating income and pre-provisioning profit has grown at 10% and
9% year-on-year, respectively. However, analysts broadly believe that there
is little upside left as valuations are rich. Angel Broking, which has a
neutral rating on the stock, says given the challenging macro developments,
within the BFSI space defensive names like HDFC may not underperform the
rest of the sector.


-- 
CA. Rajesh Desai

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