Weighing the UGDP By Rosanne D'Costa http://www.oherald.com
The UGDP's pre-election muscle flexing Doors still open for talks: UGDP (Herald, Feb 15) and Monte Cruz eyes South Goa seat (Herald, Feb 18) made interesting reading. The regional party is projecting itself as a major player on the State political scene and is in fact laying down its terms to potential allies. It wants allotment of ten assembly seats in exchange for support to a Congress-led alliance at the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. In order to gauge the significance of the UGDP threat to the chances of an 'anti-BJP alliance', it is pertinent to analyze the party's electoral performance since it's inception in the mid- nineties. It is true that the party did win seats in Assembly and Parliamentary elections since 1999. But its successes were entirely due to the personal appeal and support base of its winning candidates; the party as such never had a "vote-bank" of any sort. It's only success in the South Goa Parliamentary poll was due to the charisma of Churchill Alemao coupled with an "anti- incumbency" wave against Eduardo Faleiro. But the party never retained its deposit in subsequent elections. To buttress my opinion that the party entirely depends on the personal charisma of it's candidates and has no support base of it's own, the Vasco-da-Gama Assembly constituency is a classic case in point. In the 1994 Assembly elections, the party fielded Gandhi Henriques who polled around 350 votes. In 1999, its candidate Jose Phillip D'Souza won the seat polling 5700 votes or about 34% of the vote. However, in 2002, Jose Phillip D'Souza, contesting on a NCP ticket, polled 4500 votes (about 28% of the vote-share); the UGDP surrendered the seat to the MGP, whose candidate lost his deposit. With due respect to the UGDP leaders; the party has become a sort of "surrogate mother" in Goan politics. But, as in real life, being a surrogate mother makes good business sense in politics too. It's a win-win situation for everyone concerned. The party gains by allotting tickets to rejects of other parties; it also gains by maintaining minimum vote-share to ensure its registration with the Election Commission. The rejects gain the party symbol and some legitimacy at the elections; with no commitments to ideology and party loyalty. And the major parties gain by having ready- made MLA's required for cobbling up a majority. The UGDP has also gained a reputation of being the "party-pooper" of the Congress party in Goa. The party fields its candidates in strategic Congress strongholds - undoubtedly at the instance of the Congress party's rivals - with the sole intention of splitting the vote, thus enabling the third candidate to get elected. The UGDP returned five candidates to the Goa Assembly till date. Except for Matanhy Saldanha, none of the others remained loyal to the party for over six months. The party leaders, who are doing all the tough talking, have not won a single election on the party symbol. They are rejected in their own home-constituencies. On the other hand, assuming that the Congress allies with the UGDP, the moot question is will the so-called UGDP votes will be "transferred" to it's kitty; the answer is an emphatic impossible. The party itself was created to capitalize on the anti-Congress sentiment in the mid-nineties. Party leaders have, until recently, been spewing fire on the Congress like there is no tomorrow. It is a part of the ruling BJP coalition in the State, and its "campaigners" will have no moral right to criticize the BJP's performance both at the Centre and State. If it's constituency- level "strongmen" do not come out to campaign for the Congress candidate, the alliance will remain only on paper. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that - on Election Day the staunch - UGDP voter (if there is one) may either not vote at all, or worse still, go with the BJP rather than the Congress. My advice to the Congress Party is to ignore the UGDP. In fact, the forthcoming Lok Sabha election would be the best time for the Congress to gauge the true strength of the UGDP in the State. An alliance could be then be considered at the next Assembly elections. The most interesting piece of statistics is that though the UGDP was formed to capitalize on the anti-Congress sentiment among the minority community, the Congress party has not lost it's vote share since the first elections after Statehood in 1989; the party has always maintained a 38-39% vote share in Assembly polls. On the other hand, the UGDP vote share has been decreasing over the years. - The writer is based in Fatorda. ########################################################################## # Send submissions for Goanet to [EMAIL PROTECTED] # # PLEASE remember to stay on-topic (related to Goa), and avoid top-posts # # More details on Goanet at http://joingoanet.shorturl.com/ # # Please keep your discussion/tone polite, to reflect respect to others # ##########################################################################
