Basic Info. The discussion over this topic was very interesting and stimulating. As an casual observer myself, I thought there was a lot to learn and consider from the discussions. Another thing it is good that we do have people who are at the leading edge and understand the operation and intricacies of the financial markets.
What I did gain from the discussion is: 1. Do not risk money in the financial markets if you do not have spare money that you can afford to lose. 2. When playing in the market you can take the long term or short term view. Be sure which one you taking. 3. There are several kinds of markets financial markets Trading in Futures, Trading in Commodities, Trading in Currencies and Real Estate. You need to understand them well before you risk money in them. Analyse trends. It is no easy task to forecast the future. 4. The market decision you make is based on NOW. You are speculating on the future which is (NOW + nanosecs). If only I had done differently does not count. 5. You enter the market as a speculator. There are many players in the market. When one player wins the other loses. Remember that you are playing with hard nosed players where every trick in the book will be used. Remember insider trading can send wrong signals deliberately. The Financial markets can be seen as a gambling den of a sort. You can gamble 'safely' or you can gamble 'recklessly'. The terms are rather subjective. It always helps to glean information from trends and consider other aspects that impact the market you investing in. 6. Beware global events and factors that influence markets. They affect markets in complex ways. There is Politics and Method. Think how War for Oil rather then War for Democracy, War to keep the Dollar a Reserve Currency or a War to snuff a tyrant will affect your market. Events include everything from drought, climate change, social unrest, alliances and cooperation around the world etc affect the market immediately. So stay informed of world events too. 7. Also take a Very Long Term View of the market and ponder key issues. The market has a hair trigger. It is possible to lose money for the right reasons and make money for the wrong reasons. The Market place is a web of complex interactions. The players make the market. They can include Gov and Dictators, professionals and amateurs, old or young, rich or poor. The Market is not easy but fascinating all the same. You can make a fortune or get your fingers burnt. Gamblers have a tendency to talk up their wins rather then their losses. Consider past events and your hunches in predicting future events in advance. Success is a matter of having more successes then failures. You will have failures but fail softly. What things to consider and why and what happens next may help towards creating a mental model, looking at your predictable scenario, and noting how events bear out your model and then making a informed guess in advance of the market at time NOW. - Was the dollar a reserve currency because it was pegged to oil. What does it mean Reserve Currency? - How did the dollar get pegged to oil was it because the West guaranteed the safety of despot countries for the oil? - Did the dollar as a reserve currency give the USA the licence to print money? - Who prints the money in the USA the Fed or Congress? - Now that the cat is out of the bag will other currencies Euro even barter replace the dollar as a reserve currency? - What is the USA without the power of the dollar and to what extent will it impose its might to force the dollar on the market? - Can China sink the dollar? - Why has gold hit the roof is it because it is the only real Currency Reserve standard ? - When the markets find a solution to the dollar what is the long position on gold. Is there enough gold in the world for an expanding market. Is the current level sustainable? - How does the Financial market affect real estate, economics of nations and world soft and hard commodities? - How will climate change, environmental disasters, social unrest, exploitation and military affect the market? - etc because ignorance is bliss. 8. You pays your money and accept the consequences I guess. We can all be wise after events. Play safe be safe. 9. Mario may be more credible with his outpourings of the market then on his views on Brahmins :))). -
