A reduction of my previous post, along with a slight update, to make things more comprehensible and incisive:
1. No serious "review" of the Union Cabinet decision of March 2000 (to close Dabolim civil enclave when Mopa is operational) is likely to be done any time soon. Such closure can be a sword of Damocles hanging over Goa for decades and the state will unambiguously be left carrying the can if and when it happens, by design or default. I put it at a maximum of a few years after Mopa start-up if not earlier. 2. To avoid making any false moves which will precipitate the above in the long term (if that 'luxury' is indeed in Goa's cards), the state government will have to be more savvy about civil aviation locally and globally for the sake of its economy and society than anyone else around. A very tall order, indeed, given its dubious track record in governance all these years. 3. Check this out with Claude Alvares but NO Environmental Impact Assessment worth the name has been done yet at the Mopa airport location. The area is at least about 2720 acres, about 60% bigger than Dabolim airport. 4. The Hoteliers Association of South Goa (HASG) has not chimed in yet on the potential threat to its members' future due to the prospective closure of Dabolim civil enclave. Alemao has merely issued a terse statement of opposition. Maybe they are chalking out a protest strategy and are waiting for an opportune time to launch it. 5. The numbers surrounding the project, (passenger traffic projections, area, project cost, time lines etc) are practically pulled out of a hat and used haphazardly, possibly to avoid spooking the public prematurely. But it is essentially an endorsement of ICAO's proposal for a mega "international airport". There is no doubt in my mind that it will have to be based on closure of Dabolim civil enclave for attaining some sort of viability. The need of the hour is to recast (right size) it for environmental impact, economic viability and other reasons including the paramount one of ensuring Dabolim continues to function for 20 years in tandem. 6. The ICAO report, first produced on Mopa alone in 2005, and then revised in 2006 to superficially reflect a "two airport" scenario is nothing but a fraud on Goa. Now, after the lapse of yet another year, it is being served up again, at the insistence of the Civil Aviation Minister. ICAO's backing for Dabolim is absolutely half-hearted and there are no references whatsoever to the acute challenges of competition between the two airports and the need for co-operation for the long haul. 7. A "Big Bang", "fast track" approach to building Mopa will be a disaster since this has been all but discredited at Bangalore and Hyderabad. Instead what is needed is a fresh "efficiency of capital" approach in conjunction with "modular" expansion over two decades. It will require the Goa government to take on not only ICAO and the Civil Aviation Minister but also private airport developers -- and, obliquely, the Indian Navy. The Planning Commission may be a potential ally. 8. Upgradation and modernisation of Dabolim civil enclave, proposed at least 5 years ago and repeated in 2005, does not seem to have made any perceptible headway in all this time. Instead, in the interim, there has been controversial use of airport land by the Navy and even new plans to begin MRO activities for an undersized, perhaps largely ceremonial, customised, next generation fighter aircraft squadron expected in a few months. Some long range maritime patrol aircraft are also expected to be ordered soon. MRO may be a creditable "first" for Goa but it would block expansion of badly needed space at Dabolim for civil aviation. 9. The Goa government seems to be blissfully unaware of the severe problems and controversies plaguing the greenfield airports of Hyderabad and Bangalore which led to the recent closure of civil enclaves that were convenient and low cost for the aam admi. It seems genetically unable or unwilling to learn from these glaring lessons to the contrary in Goa's own aviation neighbourhood. It may be getting carried away by the ga-ga reports of co-opted and naive journos. Or else there may be a magnetic attraction for politicians (state and central) of a mega project when general elections are around the corner. 10. In my view, IF (a humungous one at that) the Goa government is able, in a genuinely bi-partisan and unified way, to get Mopa right and run it in tandem with Dabolim civil enclave for a decade or two, then at the end of that period, almost everything else which seems like a "sky is falling" crisis today will seem like child's play. Goa government will have grown up. The alternative scenario of a messed-up Mopa project may be seriously detrimental to Goa's interests, to put it mildly. Just my personal views. Chak de Goa!
