Hello Frederick N. You have constructed your analysis of the situ in Goa so well, that it puts renowned and other self proclaimed journos in Goa and abroad, in the shade. I like the depth and unbiased looking into the various factors that go to make up the body politic in Goa specially. Keeep it up, dear Frederick! Lets us wait and see how the election results turn out. There are certainly a lot of new elements in the Goa scenario; and is difficult to say which of these have played into the hands of the electorate. Nascy Caldeira.
________________________________ From: Frederick Noronha <[email protected]> To: "Goa's premiere mailing list, estb. 1994!" <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, 6 March 2012 10:46 AM Subject: [Goanet] BrieFNcounters: Musings on the crorepati race If one goes by probability alone, just three outcomes are possible from the Goa 2012 elections. Firstly, a hung assembly (this was the widely accepted "conventional wisdom" till 2-3 days ago, when the voting percentage figures came in). Secondly, a BJP majority (more are buying this, after the 82% high voter turnout). Or, thirdly, Congress somehow managing to retain its majority. If one goes by past experience, a hung-assembly would see the Congress Dirty-Tricks Department get overactive and launch head-first into the game. With the Governor being a party nominee, and Delhi still in the party's hands, you could easily guess who has the (unfair) advantage in such a case. Besides, to survive in Goa, any government here badly needs the Delhi protective umbrella. Even Digambar Kamat, leave aside anyone else, did it for a full five-year term! Without this, we end up with the intense political instability of the 1990s, which has vanished as suddenly as it descended on Goa after March 1990. But don't count on the situation necessarily remaining the same in Goa. To be fair, in similar situations, the BJP responded in a like manner. (Remember late 1999 and late 2000, when the "party with a difference" came to power by cashing in on dissidence and horsetrading? And got the cooperation of its fellow travellers in Delhi?) Of course, neither of these is justified; this is nothing short of a manipulation of what we here proudly call "democracy". As noted, the 82% vote has already widely been interpreted as favouring the BJP. How true this is, we shall know in a few hours. Or maybe you already know by the time you read this.... A swing of a few percent of votes can have a huge impact in our first-past-the-post electoral system. BJP getting a majority of its own would need to be interpreted for what it is. Theories fly fast and quick. There is the usual media haste to be first with the story, but this avoids deeper issues. The 'real story' takes time to emerge, if it at all does. Is there a widening of the support base? If so among whom, and how? Do we need to look at which candidates cut into whose votes where, who were the pseudo-candidates set up specifically for such a job, what role parties like the Trinamool and Independents played in shaping the result, how effective the Storming Salcete campaign proved to be, among other issues? There's also the media support the BJP secured, and the impact it had would need to be understood. Despite its own dubious record, controversial candidates and insensitive role while in office, a Congress possible win might be even tougher to explain. Moneypower and migrant votes are often propped up as the main alibi why Congress manages to stay in power. But this may not be the whole story. Where the middle-classes harp on corruption and 'family rule', the Congress has been presiding over a partial shift of power in contemporary Goa. One which empowers some hitherto deprived sections even while not completely displacing a part of the traditional elite. (Of course, as the moneybags make an increasing dent in Goan politics -- in all parties -- the Congress has badly lost its ability to build coalitions of various sections of the population.) For its part, the BJP is supposedly taking a more enlightened approach towards minorities in Goa (only the Catholics so far, the anti-Muslim bias remains within Goa's two main communities). But even as it does so, the caste churnings it has been seeing within its own ranks (the Bhandaris and the Sripad Naik case in Porvorim in the recent past) give a hint of the narrow social base where its core support comes from. Behind the surface, there are realignments -- of caste and community -- happening here too. If you bought the argument that just issues like corruption decides the result, then you would even swallow the myth that Nitish wins Bihar due to "development". (See another point of view on that here http://bit.ly/BiharPolitics ) Corruption and 'family rule' has been effectively used -- and rightly so -- to target the Congress during Elections 2012. But this battle-cry hides the conservative revolution underway here. One that could rewrite, and already has rewritten regardless of which party rules, the balance of power in the State. What one finds hard to believe is the logic that a mere change of political labels could free Goa of its many ills. Whoever wins, let's have no illusion about this. As one voter from coastal Bardez put it, in helplessness, "We have a choice between someone linked to the drug gangs and another whose wealth comes from matka (illegal gambling). What can we do?" The ambivalent stance almost all politicians of any significance have taken over mining is a case in point. Specially the manner in which the manifold problems with excessive mining itself have been converted into an issue of just "illegal mining". (All it takes to convert "illegal" into "legal" is a few words changes in the law; as seen in the casinos experience. Anyway, politicians from all sides with their hands deep in the 'illegal' till. It one constituency, voters had a choice between Mining Politician A and Mining Politician B.) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Protect Goa's natural beauty Support Goa's first Tiger Reserve Sign the petition at: http://www.goanet.org/petition/petition.php ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
