Mr.A.Rasheed,
I have provided the link and following that you can read the full text.
I have no problem with your analysis. And I am least interested to prove
contrary to your argument.
There are several interpretations available in the market. One can choose
what one prefers to.
And the voters will swing or do a googly or or do medium paced cutter as the
demands of the time.
One can be satisfied with one's own analysis till another elections are
due..







On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 9:39 PM, Abdul Rasheed <[email protected]> wrote:

>  *Mr. D. Prasad, *
> **
> *You taking out just a figure from the article of Vaikom Viswan and
> defining it. As you said, a small swing can change the victory to one side
> and that is what happened here. *
>
> *Of course, there was erosion in CPI-M vote base (internal problems
> and divisions are the problem)  and some LDF partners also vote against
> them to an extend. *
> ****
> *A large scale voters from BJP did vote for Congress *
> *(comparing with last time it is above 6 % - but that calculation is not
> right because last time, BJP got more percentage due to personal votes of
> Rajagopal and PC thomas of IFDP -  Anyway we can say approximately they lost
> between 4-5 % votes). *
> **
> *Actually PDP do not have much vote share - now their vote bank is
> actually with NDF and NDF supported UDF. *
> *present NDF cadres are once PDP/ISS workers. *
> **
> *A section of people did not vote for LDF due to different reasons (They
> did not beleive in Third front, They didn't like Adwani and Modi and for
> them Dr.Manmohan was a better choice) *
>
> *Minorities (A section of muslims and christians) worked against LDF*
>
> *But even after all these problems worked against CPI-M (LDF), if there is
> only 2 lacks vote they lost from last time, sure, CPI-M still remains
> STRONG. *
> **
> *regards *
> *Rasheed *
>
> **
>
>
>   On Sun, May 24, 2009 at 6:44 PM, damodar prasad <
> [email protected]> wrote:
>
>>   If any one has missed reading this Devika's witty and sharp take on
>> people's verdict for the 2009 LS elections, pls. follow the link:
>> http://kafila.org/2009/05/19/vaikom-viswan-and-little-bo-peep/#more-2607
>>
>> a precise excerpt from this is as follows:
>>
>> The CPM leadership doesn’t seemed to have learned anything from this
>> thrashing, though. The LDF convenor, Vaikom Viswan, observes that the CPM’s
>> share of the votes have reduced only by 2,28,638 and therefore its mass base
>> remains intact. Well, we would like to remind him that there is little
>> consolation to be drawn from this. It is a well-known fact that the LDF and
>> the UDF are more or less equally matched and a small swing can alter the
>> balance. This time the swing was certainly not small, compared with earlier
>> elections, which is something the leaders of the CPM have admitted.And
>> besides, the erosion of support was most evident in CPM’s core areas of
>> strength; therefore it is not as if the non-political strata decided to vote
>> UDF. Voters in core areas usually are loyal, while the support received in
>> non-core areas may be driven by other, more local calculations. This is
>> evident to the most ordinary voter but Vaikom Viswan and his peers are so
>> used to thinking that the rest of us Malayalees are morons — and hence
>> continues dish out such weak argument.
>>
>>
>> >>
>>

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