[Here is an informed comparison of indices of economic performance during the the two successive (Congress-led) UPA terms at the Centre with those of the previous (BJP-led) NDA regimes, from the viewpoint of three neo-liberal economists of some distinction: < http://www.epw.in/system/files/pdf/2014_49/16/Growth_in_the_Time_of_UPA.pdf >.
The one thing that sets the RSS, of which the BJP is the mass / parliamentary front, apart from the rest of the crowd on the political battlefield is that whipping up of violent passions against carefully chosen, and craftily constructed, targets - the adversarial "others", both internal and external, is its central mobilising strategy. Its very raison d'etre. That's just embedded in its DNA. Those who think that a possible Modi-led government will attenuate its aggressive instincts under the compulsion of serving the interests of large capital are committing a grave mistake. In fact, the policy of openly favouring big moneybags, which such a government is out to do, cannot but turn out, in due course, to be fairly unpopular with large sections of common and labouring masses. That'll only compel a BJP/RSS led government to play its time tested hatred and aggression card, under the banner of "hardheaded" ultra nationalism, to recoup and further consolidate its mass base, even if we assume, rather wishfully and arbitrarily, that it'd be somewhat reluctant to do so, at least to begin with.] http://www.viewpointonline.net/2014/04/vp197/the-resistible-rise-of-narendra-modi/3743-the-resistible-rise-of-narendra-modi THE RESISTIBLE RISE OF NARENDRA MODI A series of recent opinion polls indicate that India's main opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is much ahead of others in the forthcoming parliamentary elections of 2014. The party, led by its "charismatic" leader, Narendra Modi is more favoured than the ruling Indian National Congress (INC) and all other parties. Narendra Modi, the butcher of Gujarat - who led the carnage there in 2002 with mass killings against the minority Muslim population that lasted for about three months - is in his new incarnation seen as a hero and a true leader of the nation by most Indians. The consequences of BJP's victory and that of Narendra Modi at the helm of the Indian state would be very bleak. It would not be limited to a few communal riots here and there but, a capitalist development in the interest of the top layers of the country, mass exploitation of workers and other toilers, along with mobilisations based on extreme communal politics and the destruction of peoples' organisations.[1]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn1> This fertile grounds for the eruption of extreme right wing politics have been laid by the current INC-led United Progressive Alliance government in particular and the continuing neo-liberal politics of the last two decades in general. It is important to note that the locus of Indian politics has steadily shifted from centrism to right wing three decades back, and between centre-right to extreme right, permanently in the last few years. In fact during the last 5 years, an unprecedented deterioration of living standards of the ordinary people coupled with massive scams & corruption and terrible inflation. Workers across industries have seen their real wages fall and minimum wages denied across sectors (mostly informal). In the last 20 years, casualisation and informalisation of the formal sector prevailed rampantly. Around 65% of the formal sector workers are contract labours enjoying less than a quarter wages of the permanent workers in similar positions. On the other hand, we witness a huge corporate-led land grab and grabbing of other natural resources. The worst affected sections are *dalits[2] <file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn2>*, the indigenous population, women, marginalised ethnic group and others in the lower echelons of the society. *Growth & its Benefits* The onset of globalisation has significantly changed the patterns of India's capitalist evolution. By another two decades, the Indian economy is likely to become the third biggest economy, after the USA and China. In PPP terms, India is already the third largest economy.[3]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn3> PPP, or purchasing power parity, takes into account the relative costs and inflation rates in different countries. As per IMF, India's GDP (PPP) in 2012 was 4711 trillion US dollar, ahead of Japan. However, economic growth is not shared out on a redistributive model. Despite industrial growth, in 2001 some 58% of the population depended on agriculture, while the share of agriculture in the GDP dropped to 24%; and further down to 22% in 2006-7. In 2012-13, this share plummeted more to 13.7%. Currently, the proportion of population dependent on agriculture is around 53 %. Moreover, any benefits to agriculture through in this age are being absorbed at best by 8 %. As the huge number of farmer suicides across much of India show, globalisation has not benefitted all peasants. The prime targets of benefits have been agribusiness companies, whether Indian or non Indian. A second layer is the top level of farmers. Landless rural families increased from 35% in 1987 to 55% in 2005. The combination of a shift to more and more cash crop cultivation, with a shift to encouraging agribusiness investment in various forms, has been sharply negative for even relatively well off farmers. Cotton farmers, who previously used to buy local seeds, now buy BT seeds at massively increased rates. Between the turn of the century to the recent, according to an estimate made by well known journalist P. Sainath, a cotton farmer's per acre expense has gone up from Rs. 2500 to Rs 15,000-20,000. The other aspects of the dark side of globalisation also need to be discussed clearly, not because globalisation has brought no change, but because there have been claims about inclusive growth that need to be challenged. The absolute numbers of the unemployed went up from 9.02 million in 1993-94 to 13.1 million in 2004-5. In January 2012 it was still 10.8 million. Unemployment among youth is particularly grim. A Ministry of Labour report of 2013 showed that in 2012-13, unemployment among people of the age group 15-29 was 133 per thousand. In rural areas, the unemployment rate for graduates and above for the age group 15-29 years was estimated to be at 36.6%. In urban areas, the same was 26.5%.[4]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn4> The productivity of labour in India, between 2008 and 2011, went up by 7.6 %.[5]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn5> In the same period the real income of workers went down 1 %. The ILOs Global Wage Report 2012 shows the foregoing, and punctures the myth of "reforms" as aids to the poor. Between 1999 and 2007, the previous period, the available data suggests another 1 % decline in real income while labour productivity went up by 5 %.[6]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn6> In other words, in twelve years (1999-2011), labour productivity increased by 12.6 %, while real income went down 2 %.[7]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftn7> The two sets of data reveal that the world economic crisis has not changed the dynamics of the Indian economy. But, both before and after, workers are constantly asked to tighten the belt, while productivity is not going down, but steeply up. During the last decade, the share of profits in the revenue generated has more than doubled as compared to the share of wages. In both the manufacturing and services sectors, companies use loopholes as well as lack of implementation of labour laws to suppress wages. Both, companies and the government increasingly engage contract workers to bring down wage costs and improve productivity. The Economic Survey by the Government of India states that between 1991 and 2006, 870,000 jobs were cast off from the public sector. Simultaneously there has been a swell in the numbers of persons engaged as 'contract workers' or 'casuals', or where the precise relationship between the worker and the employer is legally uncertain, within the formal sector. Each of these developments inexorably lessens the percentage of the workers guarded by India's labour laws. Moreover, many workers employed in the formal sector might still fall outside the law's protection. In 2005, the overall labour force was 457 million persons, of which 395 million were employed in the informal sector. Of those in the formal sector only about 53% were actually covered by the labour laws, the remaining 47% constituting what amounts to 'informal' employment in the otherwise 'formal' sector. Various figures are advanced, but it is estimated that well over 90% of the employed workforce falls outside the law's protection. *The challenge ahead* Communalism of all kinds has to be opposed. In India today, Hindu communalism - as the potentially majoritarian communalism - if harnessed successfully can lead to a fascist type of regime. At the same time, this unprecedented savage economic liberalisation with its deregulation, casualisation of labour, escalating social injustice and the unprecedented inequality, growing inequalities and gaps and increase in marginalisation has to be resisted at all costs. ------------------------------ [1]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref1>Laboratory of Fascism: Capital, Labour and Environment in Modi's Gujarat, http://www.radicalsocialist.in/articles/national-situation/579-laboratory-of-fascism-capital-labour-and-environment-in-modi-s-gujarat [2]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref2> People of lowest caste strata [3]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref3> India to be world's 3rd-largest economy by 2028, UK thinktank says, *The Times of India, Dec 28, 2013* [4]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref4> 13.3% unemployment rate in 15-29 age group in 2012-13: Labour Ministry survey, The economic Times, Dec 1, 2013 [5]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref5>*Greater than the Might of Armies, * http://www.radicalsocialist.in/articles/national-situation/525-greater-than-the-might-of-armies-the-general-strike-of-20-21-february-2013 [6]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref6>* ibid* [7]<file:///C:/Local%20Disk%20E/VIEWPOINT/vp197/Attachments_2014417/Vp197.docx#_ftnref7> ibid Last modified on Thursday, 17 April 2014 19:54 Published in vp197 <http://www.viewpointonline.net/2014/04/vp197> -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. 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