[This time the poll percentage in Delhi reached a record high: 67.14%. This as against 65.86 in 2013 assembly poll and 66.07 in the last lok sabha poll in April 2014. So, in all probability, there is a "wave". While the high voter turn out is usually indicative of a "wave", the direction thereof is to be deciphered from other clues. Though opinion polls or even exit polls in India on occasions in the past proved quite misleading, the fact that all the exit polls barring just one, despite significant divergences, have indicated a decisive AAP win should mean something.
The twists and turns in the electoral strategy of the BJP, or rather the Modi-Shah duo, has been pretty competently plotted in the (excerpt of the) write-up at sl. III below. Despite abruptly importing Kiran Bedi from outside as the Modi magic was perceived to be failing, at the end it again became Modi vs. Kejriwal - no holds barred. Of course that will not stop the BJP from adopting the tactical line: Jeetenge to Modi Modi / Haarenge to Bedi Bedi! But hardly anyone is going to be fooled. Just an aside, if the BJP, by any chance, commits the blunder, and grave crime, of dissolving the Bihar assembly without testing the numerical strength of Nitish Kumar on the floor of the house, the aftereffects could turn out to be truly disastrous. I/III. http://m.ibnlive.com/videos/527210/i-take-responsibility-for-bjps-performance-in-the-delhi-elections-kiran-bedi.html I take responsibility for BJP's performance in the Delhi elections: Kiran Bedi February 8, 2015 11:19 AM As the AAP senses victory, the BJP's CM candidate Kiran Bedi came on record to say, win or lose, she takes responsibility for the the party's performance in the Delhi elections. "Trends show a landslide victory for AAP," said Yogendra Yadav. II/III. http://www.firstpost.com/politics/bjps-top-brass-go-huddle-amid-bihar-crisis-delhi-exit-poll-results-2086515.html BJP's top brass go into a huddle amid Bihar crisis, Delhi exit poll results by FP Staff Feb 8, 2015 12:01 IST The BJP's top leadership have reportedly gone into a huddle after exit polls have predicted an Aam Aadmi Party win in Delhi while the ongoing battle in Bihar for its control reached its peak on Saturday after former ally-turned-foe Nitish Kumar of the JD-U decided to take over from CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, a man he himself elevated to the top post after the general election. ALl the exit polls on Saturday have predicted a majority for the Aam Aadmi Party in the Delhi Assembly elections with one of them giving it as high as 53 seats in the 70-member House. The projections were made after Delhi saw a record turnout of an estimated 67 percent at the end of a bitter contest between the AAP and BJP. The Bharatiya Janata Party could bag 17-35 seats. The Congress, which ruled Delhi for 15 years until December 2013, would be routed, winning no seat or at best four seats, the exit polls predicted. According to various reports, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party chief Amit Shah on Saturday held separate meetings and took stock of the Delhi polls, even as the party exuded confidence about forming a government in Delhi. Kiran Bedi with Narendra Modi. AFP.Kiran Bedi with Narendra Modi. AFP. "Exit polls are there, but we know the ground reality. Our workers have worked hard through the day and are witness to people supporting the BJP in large numbers. Voters have cast their ballot in record numbers for the BJP. Wait till February 10, the BJP will win and form the government. We will get a clear majority," Union Minister Ananth Kumar said after a meeting of top party leaders with Shah at the party headquarters. Others who participated in the meeting included Union Ministers JP Nadda, Piyush Goyal, Dharmendra Pradhan, Nirmala Sitharaman, Birender Singh and Jitendra Singh, all of whom were given charge of a cluster of Assembly seats. According to an Indian Express report Goyal maintained that the party would get approximately 40 seats. ***Asked what if the BJP is defeated, he said Kiran Bedi will then become Leader of Opposition*** [emphasis added.]. [That's apparently the carrot for Bedi to make her amenable to own up the responsibility for a rather likely (crashing?) defeat.] However, Bedi rejected exit poll results even as she spoke of taking "full responsibility" in the event of a party defeat. Prior to this meeting, Modi held a meeting with the party's core group, that included Shah, BJP general-secretary (organisation) Ram Lal and Union Ministers Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj and Nitin Gadkari to take stock of the Delhi polls and the political situation in Bihar. The meeting lasted almost three hours, where the outcome of various exit polls that predicted a victory for the AAP were also discussed. Sources said Modi also took note of the polling pattern in the Delhi Assembly polls and discussed the BJP's prospects. ***Although the Delhi election was a battle for the city state, it became high profile after Prime Minister Modi addressed rallies asking people to reject the AAP and its leader Kejriwal whom he called a Maoist.*** [Emphasis added.] Modi is also learnt to have discussed the emerging political situation in Bihar, where the party is keen to wrest power. Meanwhile, BJP's top Bihar leader Sushil Modi also met Shah and Manjhi was also in touch with the party's top leaders. Manjhi on Saturday recommended the state assembly's dissolution against the view of a majority of his cabinet colleagues even as his predecessor Nitish Kumar was elected the Janata-Dal United legislature party chief, signalling that he could be at the state's helm again. Bihar minister Narendra Singh, who is considered close to Manjhi, said they would take support from the BJP to run the government if there was such a need. BJP leaders have accused Nitish Kumar of doing injustice to a 'mahadalit'. Sources said the BJP leadership was keeping a watch on the situation in Bihar and carefully weighing its options. III/. http://www.asianage.com/editorial/where-emperor-s-writ-doesn-t-run-058 Where an emperor's writ doesn't run... Feb 08, 2015 - Mohan Guruswamy Email this page Printer-friendly version Arvind Kejriwal ..... The BJP, which swept all of Delhi 's seven parliamentary seats, and which was expecting to sweep out the AAP insurgency riding on the tailwinds of Narendra Modi's perceived popularity, became nervous when it saw the poor turnout at the first of the PM's public meetings at the Ramlila grounds. Despite the tight shots of the TV cameras and the cropping of photographs on the news editors' desks, the truth could not be hidden. Narendra Modi for PM was one thing, but it seems that for CM, the people were looking for one of their own. Kejriwal, being a shrewd tactician, was quick to sense this and raised the pitch for full statehood, for the people of Delhi to take control of their everyday lives. The keepers of the BJP's holy grail then rolled out Kiran Bedi, who was expected to neutralise the Kejriwal mystique with her own. But like all through her long career, Bedi began to wilt with every challenge. Her sudden propulsion as the CM candidate for a start made many Delhi BJP leaders unhappy. The Sangh Parivar had to issue many diktats to cajole its reluctant troops to sally forth into electoral battle. Bedi by her speech and actions did not command much confidence, and by the time the TV anchors and the press correspondents, the same lot who fawned on Narendra Modi, were done with her, she became openly jittery and teary. It was apparent that this gambit was failing. The BJP/RSS then began a mobilisation only they are capable off [read "of"]. The call went out and every resource and strength has been put to work. BJP workers and RSS pracharaks poured in from all parts of the country. At one time, no less than 120 MPs and ministers were addressing corner meetings -- with fewer and fewer people attending. This seemed like the point of inflection, for the BJP juggernaut was at hand. It was then back again to Modi ka Sarkar again. Narendra Modi, dressed ever more nattily with all the Prime Ministerial paraphernalia on show, literally descended from the skies once again, now not as the statesman but as the street-fighter. He has been hurling political invective and name-calling seldom associated with that office. It has once again become a Modi vs. Kejriwal battle. It would seem Modi has somewhat stemmed the AAP tide. But Kejriwal has not been wanting in effort. He has shrewdly recast this as a rich vs poor battle. What lent his message impetus was the untimely release of official data that more than 70 percent of Delhi families lived on a monthly budget of Rs.12,000 or less and that almost all the migrant labour earned an average of Rs. 6,500 a month. Suddenly, it seemed Delhi's middle-class that made it the darling of marketing men just evaporated. What Delhi seems to now have is an upper class and a large under class. Against this backdrop, the AAP promise of once again slashing power and water rates finds valence. The PM on the other hand is fettered by responsibility. The inevitable polarisation seems to have cast the Congress aside. The Congress party, whose vote share slumped to about 20 per cent in the Lok Sabha elections, is now expected to be hard pressed to get even half that. So how do I read the tealeaves? I think it's a close race. But most observers of the Delhi scene I have spoken to say the AAP will win handily. Whatever happens Delhi is not going to be the same again. The writer has held senior positions in government and industry, and is a policy analyst studying economic and security issues. He also specialises in the Chinese economy. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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