[But, after Delhi, a disaster looms for them in Bihar. Maybe the BJP will empathise with their plight.]
http://www.firstpost.com/politics/whoever-ends-up-winning-the-bihar-election-disaster-looms-large-for-bookies-2496312.html Whoever ends up winning the Bihar election, disaster looms large for bookies by FP Politics Nov 5, 2015 15:12 IST Regardless of the outcome of the Bihar election, there is one category of Indians that has already lost the election: the bookies Such has been the sudden twist in the Bihar tale that the bookies are on the way to losing huge amounts of money, making some of them insolvent. Just a few days ago, they were betting on a thumping win for the NDA. They were so cocky in their belief that the betting was not on whether the NDA will form the next government--it was a foregone conclusion--but if it will win more than 140 seats. Representational image. IbnliveRepresentational image. Ibnlive But about a week ago, everything turned upside down. Now the betting is not on whether the NDA will form the government, but whether it will win 100 seats. Obviously, those who had put their money on the BJP: a) winning the election; b) crossing 140 seats; and c) the Mahagathbandhan tally remaining below 100 will lose huge amounts. How bookies lost it Betting on elections isn't a simple game. It is based on equations, calculations and reports from the ground sent by "experts" from within the loosely organised betting rackets that operate out of Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi. Based on the initial calculations and trends, bookies open a rate, or bhaav. In Bihar, for instance, dozens of bookies from across India travelled as a group during and before every round of polling and calibrated their rates depending on the feedback. Betting began around three months ago with odds in favour of the BJP winning the election. Later, as the campaign progressed, the bookies became even more gung-ho about the BJP's chances and gave it in excess of 145 seats, with the odds staying even at a peak of 155 seats after the second round of polling. But, on Thursday, on the final day of polling, bookies were offering equal odds on the NDA winning only 110 seats and independent and others bagging eight. The next government, according to them, will now be formed by Nitish Kumar. Greed and Fear Let us compare the drama in the satta market with the stock market to understand why bookies will be butchered. Till a few days ago, the BJP was like a scrip that was supposed to hit a high of 145, so many bookies bought it. Now, the price has suddenly crashed below 110, so those who had bought the BJP scrip have two options: one, sell it at a loss or, two, buy at the new price to average their cost. But, what if it crashes again? Obviously, this is a high stakes game that will destroy many. There is considerable panic among punters (those who place a bet) and bookies (those who accept it). Since the rates have changed dramatically over the past week most of them were not able to time the market and get out or reverse their positions in time. This is not the first time the Indian voter has turned the satta market on its head. Even in Delhi, the bookies had opened the game by predicting 45-plus seats for the BJP and less than 20 for Arvind Kejriwal. When the BJP won just three, many bookies were thrown out of business, many punters were financially ruined for life. The bookies had famously got it right in Gujarat, though, predicting around 117-118 seats for the BJP in 2012 and in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh a year later. Since the final tally was almost around the figure predicted by them, the bookies became more confident of their tools and methods. ***But, after Delhi, a disaster looms for them in Bihar.*** [Emphasis added.] ***Maybe the BJP will empathise with their plight.*** [Emphasis added.] -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
