[Never mind that the speculative analysis below chooses to completely overlook the element of RSS/BJP Long March towards a Hindu Rashtra by dismantling and displacing the current "secular-democratic" edifice of the Indian state. Just never mind.
The chief merit of the speculative analysis lies not in its rather unorthodox suggestion that Adityanath's choice actually signifies that the bell is going to toll for Modi, rather sooner than later. Its real strength lies in acknowledging the somewhat puzzling nature of the choice, and not because Aditynath is a "Hindu" hard-liner, to put it rather euphemistically. (May likke to watch: 'Adityanath on stage speaker asks to rape muslim women by taking them out of graves- Hate Speech' at <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLXYzvI_FWs>.) But because the choice of an independent leader, one who's his very much his own man, that too in a state like UP, politically most important in India, and too without any apparent compulsion, given the humongous scale of the current victory, goes against the very grain of Modi-Shah's modus operandi. Then why Adityanath? It's precisely in this context, the complete ignoring of the element and the imperatives of the Long March is so very disappointing. Never mind.] http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/mumbai/is-bjp-moving-towards-being-beyond-modi-/articleshow/57722076.cms Is BJP moving towards being ‘beyond Modi’ ? Santosh Desai | TNN | Mar 19, 2017, 11.28 PM IST The selection of Yogi Adityanath as the UP CM is not an easy decision to read and make sense of. The reactions to this news have been on expected lines, with one side being appalled at the choice of an avowed and aggressive Hindutvavadi and the other taking great pleasure in the unhappiness it has caused the liberals. (Picture courtesy: REUTERS/Pawan Kumar) But beyond the expected reactions, this move is intriguing because it runs counter to the script that has been written so far. According to the Modi-Shah blueprint, Modi wins elections in states, hands over the reins to somebody without any real stature, and along with Amit Shah, continues to exercise total dominance over the party by virtue of his connection with voters. In some cases, like Maharashtra, the person chosen goes on to develop local standing while in most others like Haryana and Gujarat, acts unremarkably and stays unheralded. Also, attempts to polarize voters tend to peak before the elections, and then becomes a lets-keep-the pot-on-simmer kind of an effort. The implicit promise is that Hindutva would be assertively deployed to win elections, but the focus would shift to talking about development and governance once victory was achieved. Puzzlingly, by appointing Adityanath, both elements of this template are being dismantled. Here we have a leader with a strong local base, and with enough standing to be able to convey displeasure to the party leadership when the occasion arises, something no other BJP leader in the country can envisage today. More tellingly, there is already talk of his becoming a Prime Ministerial candidate in 2024. To be sure, this is fanciful kite flying indulged in by a few of his supporters, but the fact that anyone can dare articulate this in the BJP of today means something. Also, to appoint him is to crystallise and make visible a harder Hindutva line from here on. So far, Hindutva has been used as a retractable weapon, deployed with some flexibility. It comes to the fore on occasion, and is otherwise deployed symbolically. Social media warriors add to the mix by unleashing textual anger on its enemies. The anointment of Adityanath changes that in a more permanent way. The dog whistle can now be heard by everyone, and that signals a clear shift in strategy. (Picture courtesy: AFP/ Sanjay Kanojia) Why would the party and the Modi-Shah combine take this call? After all, the current strategy is working and the landslide win in UP is proof of that. What additional gain can a more muscular display of Hindutva bring to the party? Perhaps it is time to consider the admittedly counterintuitive possibility that this selection has been driven by Nagpur and is part of a longer-term strategy that addresses certain structural issues that the party faces. The BJP’s biggest strength by far is Narendra Modi and for all the advantages that this brings, it raises some uncomfortable questions for the party in the long run. For instance, how well would it have done in the UP elections, without the help of this gifted politician? The reason for asking this hypothetical question is to argue that for all the apparent visibility they enjoy, the ideas and platforms that are espoused by the party do not by themselves translate into electoral victory. Simply put, without Modi, the BJP platform by itself does not seem capable of getting it to power. The support for Modi is far greater than the support for the BJP. Development and aspiration have undoubted appeal, but again without Modi, the BJP does not have the ability to make people believe in this dream. As far as the more ideological part of its appeal goes, in theory, it should not need any individual to convert these into votes- the ideas themselves should suffice but that is clearly not the case. Modi’s genius is that he manages to reconcile the two primary motivations that exist in politics- fear and hope in one single package, and in this he is unique. The BJP is in a curious place. At one level, it is India’s only political formation that can call itself a national party. It is increasingly becoming a force or at the very least a presence in regions where it was virtually non-existent till a few years ago. The Congress has become a joke that the party inflicts on itself, and the AAP is a long way from being any kind of force nationally. Regional parties are even more dependent on select individuals, and most of these parties are in decline, and it is a matter of time before they cede substantial ground, potentially to the BJP. For the BJP, the fact that their core platform is not enough for it to win consistently in spite of the great weakness that the opposition possesses is a problem that it needs to address at a structural level. This is where Adityanath might fit in. The UP win may have given it confidence that its cultural agenda needs to be made more visible and become a more overt reason for people to vote for it. This would mean that while Modi would be the overall face of the government, the party’s ideological thrust would be more sharply represented by Adityanath. Picture courtesy: PTI Also, it may begin the process of building a second line of leadership, beyond Modi. Adityanath radiates the aura of strength so vital to excite the party base; what he lacks is Modi’s ability to speak to the aspirations of the voter today. If this hypothesis is true, then over time we will probably see Adityanath using the Modi playbook. Use Hindutva credentials for legitimacy, but create a sense of decisive leadership based on a narrative of development and aspiration. The problem for him will be to manage this transition, but more importantly do so without setting himself up as a future challenger to Modi, which is easier said than done. A strategic shift has taken place, the variables have multiplied- the next few days should make things a little clearer. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
