[If we look at the frequency of bloopers, the omens are not very positive for the BJP. The second (or third?) most important, and arguably the most aggressive, campaigner has got virtually defanged by the shocking electoral setback in his own very den.
The trend of electoral outcomes vis-a-vis "incumbency" though favours the Party. The comprehensive picture, even if, is a bit more complex. (For a pretty detailed account look up sl. no. III. below.) And, it has been able to get back its rebel and yet by far the tallest state leader back in its fold. But, odds still appear to be favouring the ruling Congress led by fairly formidable Siddaramaiah. The opinon polls, even if neither congruent and, thereby, nor conclusive, also tend to suggest that way.] I/III. https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/bjp-campaigns-cong-again-amit-shahs-kannada-translator-says-modi-wont-help-poor-78680 BJP campaigns for Cong again! Amit Shah's Kannada translator says Modi won't help poor This comes close on the heels of Amit Shah’s own blooper recently stating that BS Yeddyurappa’s govt was number 1 in corruption. TNM Staff Thursday, March 29, 2018 - 11:16 In yet another embarrassing gaffe for the BJP, MP Prahlad Joshi wrongly translated party president Amit Shah's speech from Hindi to Kannada and claimed that "Narendra Modi will not do anything for the poor and Dalits". The video of Joshi's mis-translation comes close on the heels of Amit Shah's own blooper, calling BJP's chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa's government in Karnataka, number 1 in corruption. The video was aired by Times Now and ends abruptly after the first line of Joshi's translation. Addressing the media in Davangere on Tuesday, BJP President Amit Shah said, “If there was ever a competition for corruption, then the Yeddyurappa government would get the number 1 position.” Except that the BJP chief really meant to hit out at Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah. BJP MP Prahlad Joshi, who was sitting next to Amit Shah, was quick to point out the blunder to the party president, even as state chief BS Yeddyurappa, who was also present, was left red-faced. Upon realising his error, Amit Shah corrected himself and said, “Arre, Siddaramaiah government is number one in corruption.” Following this latest incident, the Congress has been quick to pounce on both the BJP chief’s slip of tongue and MP Joshi's mis-translation. Videos of both the gaffes were gleefully shared on social media by supporters of the Congress. Rahul Gandhi ✔ @RahulGandhi Now that the BJP IT cell has announced Karnataka elections, time for a sneak preview of our top secret campaign video! Gifted to us by the BJP President, our campaign in Karnataka is off to a fabulous start. He says Yeddyurappa ran the most corrupt Govt ever... True. 3:14 PM - Mar 27, 2018 24.7K 14.9K people are talking about this Twitter Ads info and privacy However, this wasn’t the party's first gaffe as Congress’ Social Media and Communication Head Divya Spandana pointed out. Accusing the Karnataka government of not doing enough to improve infrastructure or irrigation, Amit Shah recently wondered where the money went. But, instead of taking Siddaramaiah’s name, the BJP chief slipped up, stating, “Also, Yeddyurappa says that the BJP does not help for the growth of Karnataka.” Divya Spandana/Ramya ✔ @divyaspandana 27 Mar Who knew @AmitShah could also speak the truth- we all concur with you Amit ji @BSYBJP is the most corrupt! pic.twitter.com/GFbTF3Mg7H Divya Spandana/Ramya ✔ @divyaspandana This isn’t the first time btw- what exactly are Amit Shah’s feelings towards yedyurappa? All’s not good in the hood- pic.twitter.com/cVzGtsOIz3 1:27 PM - Mar 27, 2018 1,974 1,194 people are talking about this Twitter Ads info and privacy On Tuesday, the Election Commission announced the Karnataka Assembly election dates, with polling scheduled to take place on May 12 and counting on May 15. The state will see a three-cornered fight between the Congress, BJP and JDS. II. https://www.firstpost.com/politics/karnataka-assembly-election-2018-opinion-polls-divided-as-c-fore-goes-for-congress-others-predict-hung-result-4409325.html Karnataka Assembly Election 2018: Opinion polls divided as C-Fore goes for Congress, others predict hung result Politics FP Staff Mar 28, 2018 15:15:47 IST The Election Commission's announcement of the dates for the Karnataka Assembly elections on Tuesday has sparked alive an already electric poll environment in the electorally contrarian state. Such is the anti-incumbency wave in the state that no incumbent government has retained power in elections in Karnataka since 1985. The Congress, led by its local mascot in Siddaramaiah, is hoping to ward off the Hindutva plank of the BJP and beat the statistical odds. If a pre-poll survey conducted by C-Fore is to be believed, the Congress will not only return to power in Karnataka but will improve its tally in the 224-member Legislative Assembly. According to News18, the survey, conducted between 1-25 March, covered 22,357 voters across 154 Assembly constituencies. File image of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Karnataka BJP chief BS Yeddyurappa. Getty Images and PTI C-Fore, whose previous pre-poll surveys have never been off the mark, has said that the Congress is likely to get 46 percent of the votes, a positive swing of nine percent while the BJP is expected to get 31 percent votes and the JD(S), 16 percent of the total votes. Sources told News 18 that the Congress itself had commissioned this survey. In 2013, C-Fore had predicted that the Congress would end up winning 119-120 seats and it ended up with 122. However, a Financial Express report quoted opinion polls that suggested that, so far, both BJP and Congress may not get a majority on their own and the JD(S) may gain at their cost. The survey, carried out by a poll agency named CHS, predicted 77-81 seats for Congress, 73-76 seats for BJP and 64-66 seats for the JD(S). Another opinion poll quoted by the report (conducted by TV9-C Voter) had claimed the Congress would be the largest party with 102 seats, while BJP will likely win 96 seats. The JD(S) may end up with 25 seats and is likely to play kingmaker. According to the News18 report, the opinion poll revealed that people ranked access to clean drinking water as their top-ranked problem. Other major problems included an inadequate drainage system and bad roads. When it came to picking the most popular choice for chief minister, 45 percent chose incumbent chief minister Siddaramaiah as their first preference, 26 percent said BJP's BS Yeddyurappa was their pick and only 13 percent preferred HD Kumaraswamy, the C-Fore survey said. The EC on Tuesday announced a single-phase election for the 224-member Karnataka Legislative Assembly on 12 May, with the counting of votes to be taken up on 15 May. Political parties welcomed the decision and said that they are "election ready", with all three players, Congress, BJP and JDS, claiming that they would come to power. BJP president Amit Shah welcomed the announcement, saying that the party would come to power with a thumping majority under the leadership of state BJP chief B S Yeddyurappa. Speaking to reporters at Davanagere on the second day of his tour to the central region of Karnataka, Shah said the party is all geared up to fight the election and will come to power and Yeddyurappa will become the next chief minister. The ruling Congress, which is facing a tough challenge from BJP, welcomed the election dates, asserting that the party is poll ready. @INCKarnataka welcomes the Election Commission's announcement. Karnataka Assembly Polls on 12th May and counting on 15th May 2018. We are election ready!" KPCC President G Parameshwara said in a tweet. Commenting on the poll dates, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah expressed confidence about Congress coming back to power for a second term. "Expectation was that it will be announced any time after March 23, today they have declared (the dates)," he told reporters in Chikkaballapura. Responding to a question, the chief minister reiterated his allegation that JDS has joined hands with the BJP. "We are contesting independently, JDS is also contesting independently, but they have a relationship with BJP," he said. Asked about a pre-poll survey forecasting 126 seats for the Congress in the coming polls, he said "there is no doubt about it; we will come back (to power). On the other hand, BJP too welcomed poll dates and claimed that the party was a step closer to "Congress Mukth Bharat." "Dear Kannadigas, Our redemption from the tyrannical rule of @siddaramaiah is not far." "On May 15th, 1.BJP will win with thumping majority 2. @BSYBJP will become 23rd CM from NDA 3. We will be a step closer to Congress Mukth Bharata," BJP said in a tweet. With inputs from PTI Published Date: Mar 28, 2018 15:15 PM | Updated Date: Mar 28, 2018 15:15 PM III. https://www.firstpost.com/politics/karnatakas-history-of-bucking-the-national-trend-in-elections-may-derail-amit-shahs-strategies-3955217.html Karnataka's history of bucking the national trend in elections may derail Amit Shah’s strategies Politics Srinivasa Prasad Aug 21, 2017 12:36:58 IST The C-Fore pre-poll survey that projects a comfortable victory for the Congress in the Karnataka Assembly election — still some eight months away — should present no rude shock to the BJP. The survey projects 120 to 132 seats for the Congress in the 224-strong Assembly, giving the BJP 60 to 72 and the Janata Dal (Secular) 24 to 30. If Karnataka brings the Congress back to power in the coming Assembly polls, the state will only be sticking to the pattern of going against the national election trend. Pre-poll surveys could go notoriously awry and trends could change between now and the time elections are held, and the BJP can only hope that the C-Fore survey is proved wrong. File image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. AFPFile image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP chief Amit Shah. AFP But if the survey’s projections indeed come true, the BJP can dream of an encore of the 2013 and 2014 elections in the state. In 2013, the Congress won the Assembly poll, while the BJP bagged most of the Lok Sabha seats in 2014. This time round, a 2018 victory for the Congress in the Assembly poll could give the BJP reason to expect to put on a good show in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. While the personal image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is palpably high in Karnataka, public opinion sees both the BJP and the Congress in the state as parties tainted with corruption and holds both of them guilty of indifference to people. It should be no surprise if voters divide their loyalties between the two parties in the elections to the Assembly and the Lok Sabha once again. But unlike what the survey predicts, a Congress victory in the next Assembly election — if that’s what the election outcome is going to be — may have more to do with the state’s history of breaking from the national trend than with Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s sundry populist schemes. Voters are aware that Siddaramaiah’s pet pre-poll schemes are a result of lost memories returning to him in the nick of time. They know that nothing can jog a politician out of amnesia like the visions of voters queuing up before EVMs on polling day. So it’s not surprising that Siddaramaiah suddenly remembered what some Hindu upper-caste Lingayats had been demanding for more than a decade: A separate religion. It’s not surprising that Siddaramaiah suddenly remembered that a good soul had designed a Kannada flag some five decades ago, and he now must make it official. It’s not surprising that the chief minister suddenly remembered that the people of Karnataka speak and adore Kannada, and he must oppose any imposition of Hindi by the Centre. It’s not surprising that he remembered that the poor in cities suffer from hunger. So he opened last week Indira Canteens to dish out breakfast at Rs five and lunch and dinner at Rs 10. It isn't shocking either that it struck Siddaramaiah overnight that Bengaluru’s roads are blighted with potholes, some as big as children’s swimming pools, and the city’s drains are clogged with garbage. So he now gets roads tarred and drains tidied up. Siddaramaiah-2 gung-ho Thanks to the approaching elections, Siddaramaiah is not Siddaramaiah now. He is Siddaramaiah-2, pumped up with newfound enthusiasm to salvage Kannadiga pride. But there is a little catch. If Siddaramaiah imagines he is smart, the voters are smarter. They were not born yesterday. They were born 18 years ago or more, and most of them are familiar with the spectacle of ruling parties clutching at any ploy to win votes. Take for instance a medical shop owner in South Bengaluru. Pointing at the road being tarred in front of his shop with an amused chuckle, he says: “The last time the road was tarred was 15 years ago. I can remember it because that was when my son, now 15, was born.” A barber speaks of the crowds thronging the new Indira Canteens. Would they vote for the Congress? He laughs. “People who are eating there know why the canteens have come up six months before elections.” Siddaramaiah’s sops may sweep some voters here or some there off their feet, but are unlikely to translate into an electoral tsunami that will help Congress retain the only big state it rules after Punjab. And yet, the chief minister can see hope for his party, as C-Fore’s survey projects. He knows he stands a chance of victory, even if it’s a gossamer-thin one. What could indeed help him more than anything is Karnataka’s history. How Karnataka defies national trends Amit Shah may use every trick in his impressive repertoire of election-management strategies, but his BJP may fall short of victory. What may doom his party to defeat is again Karnataka’s history — of voting for one party at the Centre and another in the state, or backing a party in the state different from the one ruling at the centre. Take a look at some of the elections. 1989: The Congress lost the Lok Sabha elections after a sustained campaign by the Opposition against, among other things, the Bofors scandal, and VP Singh of the Janata Dal became the National Front Prime Minister. In Karnataka, the Congress won 27 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats, leaving only one to the Janata Dal. And in the simultaneously held Assembly elections in the state, the Congress returned to power with a whopping majority by winning 178 of the 224 seats, replacing the previous Janata Dal government. 1994: The Congress government headed by PV Narasimha Rao was in power at the Centre. But the 1994 Assembly elections in Karnataka not only saw the return of the Janata Dal government headed by HD Deve Gowda, but also the fall of the Congress to the number-three position of the BJP. 1999: In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA won a majority in the Lok Sabha. But in Karnataka, the Congress won most of the Lok Sabha seats (18 of the 28) and the assembly seats (132 of the 224 seats). The Congress government of SM Krishna replaced the Janata Dal government and the BJP came a poor second with 44 Assembly seats. 2004: In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the UPA trounced the NDA and formed its first government, but the BJP got the largest number of 18 Parliament seats in Karnataka. In the state Assembly elections too, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 78 seats, though the Congress formed a government in alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular). Four years later, the state saw elections again to the Assembly, giving the BJP a majority. Once again in 2013, while Karnataka brought back the Congress to power in the state, the BJP won 17 of the 28 seats in the Lok Sabha elections a year later. As Shah himself warned his state leaders on his recent visit to Bengaluru, the state BJP unit cannot hope to depend on only the Modi wave to see them through in the Assembly polls. The author tweets @sprasadindia Published Date: Aug 21, 2017 11:49 AM | Updated Date: Aug 21, 2017 12:36 PM -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. 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