I. First of all, the hard facts, as of now. AA. Chhatisgarh: 90 seats
The Congress, quite belying the poll of (exit) polls (ref.: < https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/story/assembly-elections-poll-of-polls-exit-poll-rajasthan-madhya-pradesh-telangana-chhattisgarh-mizoram-1404904-2018-12-07>), is winning the Chhattisgarh assembly hands down. The poll predicted a hung assembly. The actual position is as under. The Indian National Congress (INC) has (already) won 67 seats (+1 leading), polling 43.0% of polled votes. The BJP: 15 seats with 33% votes. So, the number of seats won by the Congress is just over 4.5 times that of the principal challenger and the ruling party BJP with 10% points more vote. This despite the fact that the breakaway, and rebel, faction from the Congress, Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J), has polled 7.6% votes winning 5 seats. Its ally BSP has won 2 seats and polled 3.9% votes. That's quite astounding. BB. Mizoram: 40 seats The Congress has lost Mizoram rather miserably, to its challenger the MNF. Again, the poll of polls had predicted a narrow loss. The Congress could win a measly 5 seats with 30.2% of votes. MNF has scored a resounding victory over the party in power winning 26 seats with 37.6% votes. The BJP, the third major contestant, could open its account, for the first time, winning 1 seat with 8.0% votes. Not too bad. Independent candidates won 8 seats (out of total 40) with 22% votes. The MNF supports the BJP/NDA government at the Centre. CC. Telangana: 119 seats Congress has Lost Telangana, pretty badly. Much worse than the composite prediction. The ruling TRS has come back with a thumping majority winning 88 seats with 46.9% votes. Its only ally, the AIMIM, has won 7 seats with 2.7% votes. The Congress: 19 seats with 28.4% votes. Its main ally, TDP: 2 seats with 3.5% votes. The CPI(M), which led a fourth front, failed to open its account and has polled 0.4% votes. So has the CPI, an ally of the Congress. DD. Rajasthan: 200 seats (poll held for 199) Congress has emerged the largest single party, unseating the ruling BJP, winning 99 seats - 2 shy of absolute majority, with one poll pending, and polling 39.3% votes. Worse than the composite prediction. The Ruling BJP, considerably behind, has won 73 seats with 38.8% votes. So, the differential in votes polled is only 0.5% points. Independent candidates, mostly rebels from the two main contenders, have won 13 seats with 9.5% votes. The BSP: 6 seats with 4.0% votes. The CPI(M), leading a front, has won 2 seats with 1.2% votes. EE. Madhya Pradesh: 230 seats In Madhya Pradesh, it's a tight race between the Congress and the BJP. The poll of polls predicted a broadly similar outcome. The Congress has won 114 seats and polled 40.9% votes. It'd need another 2 seats to form government. The erstwhile ruling BJP has won 109 seats; has polled 41% votes. The two combined has polled 81.9% votes. The BSP has won 2 swats with 5.0% votes. The SP: 1 seat with 1.3% votes. Independent candidates have won 4 seats with 5.8% votes. Here, the situation is expected to turn quite murky, if we keep in mind what had happened in Karnataka and prior to that in Goa, in particular. The brazenly partisan role that the state Governor had played. II. The prospects for the LS poll. AA. ***Even if there's a considerable erosion of support for the BJP, across the board, except in Mizoram, it'd be far from a cakewalk for the anti-BJP forces, mainly the Congress. Even with the same voting pattern repeated. But, to be sure, the mood of despondency that had set in in the wake of the last UP poll, in particular, stands dispelled.*** BB. The voting patterns in the state polls and the LS poll need not be the same, even with all other factors remaining the same. ***CC. Evidently, the Modi-Shah duo cannot but take note of its declining fortune. They're quite capable of and, in fact, pretty keen to play dirty, as and when required. One may, here, recall the way Modi had he cooked up a charge of *treason*, nothing less, against his predecessor and the previous Vice President of the nation just to garner some extra votes in a medium-sized state poll, which'd be retracted by Jaitley later on the floor of the parliament, after the Gujarat poll is well over and the intended purpose served. (Ref.: <https://twitter.com/officeofrg/status/946038581306441728?lang=en>.) Modi is far from a risk-averse person. If pushed to the corner, he can act pretty recklessly, in order to secure some immediate advantage, regardless of what happens beyond that. The monstrous demonetisation is a graphic illustration. (Ref.: < http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4311065-India-Demonetisation-One-Year-After-A-Synoptic.html >.) The recent developments in the RBI, leading to the installation of a faithful former bureaucrat, an MA in History (ref.: < https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shaktikanta_Das>), at its top, leave no space for any whatever doubt that the regime is hell bent on raiding the reserve funds of the RBI, in order to shower pre-poll sops all around. The other known unknown is the Ram Mandir agitation and the orchestrated demand for an ordinance bypassing the Supreme Court. There could be even other unknown unknowns.*** DD. Under the circumstances, the forces, both electoral and non-electoral, intent upon unseating the incumbent evil regime must demonstrate a considerably higher degree of cohesive determination, alertness, innovativeness and the capabilities to look beyond the tip of their nose than ever before. This may, in fact, be the very last chance to save the notion of "India" as it came to be forged in the crucible of the epic freedom struggle, engaging in the process millions and millions of lives. It must not be lost sight of that the RSS and the Hindu Mahasabha were just no part of that. The RSS is, in fact, committed to replace the current "secular, democratic" edifice, that emerged out of the struggle, first, bit by bit, and then, perhaps, in a hammer blow with a "Hindu Rashtra" - complete negation of the current ideal of a pluralistic, inclusivist, composite and egalitarian nationhood. The cost of failure would only be too high. -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. 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