[Pls. visit the original sites for highly informative graphics.] I/II. 《According to the party-wise votes polled for each constituency-wise released by the Election Commission until tonight, the Congress is all set to sweep Chhattisgarh winning 10 of 11 Lok Sabha seats. In Rajasthan, the BJP may shrink to 13 Lok Sabha seats as against its 25-seat sweep in 2014. Similarly, the BJP may be reduced to 17 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh as against the 27 it won in 2014. ... A similar Lok Sabha-wise pooling of BSP and SP-Congress’s votes in the 2017 Assembly election suggests that BJP may lose as many as 50 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh if its rivals close ranks for 2019. Likewise, a Lok Sabha-wise pooling of Congress and JD(S) votes in each Assembly segment corresponding to respective Lok Sabha seats translates into the BJP winning only six of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka. This is a massive drop for the BJP from its tally of 17 in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. In all, the BJP may lose as many as 92 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections.》
(Source: 'How this translates to Lok Sabha: BJP tally down 62 to 31 in three states: In the three Hindi heartland states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the BJP has lost as many as 180 assembly seats — almost 48 per cent of what it held in 2013.' by by Ravish Tiwari and Piyush Aggarwal at < https://indianexpress.com/elections/assembly-poll-results-2018-how-this-translates-to-lok-sabha-bjp-tally-down-62-to-31-in-three-states-5489261/?fbclid=IwAR2YurBzBaE7AY5odWa7zQWN8kA5D16850E6nca5VDhbp8d6LT7_Iib476Q >.) II. 《The thrilling cliffhanger in MP notwithstanding, a few clear trends are emerging. First, like in Gujarat’s Saurashtra a year ago, Congress is on the upswing in rural India. In MP, Congress improved its tally from 56 rural seats in 2013 to 95 in 2018 while BJP went down from 122 to 82. In Rajasthan, Congress more than quadrupled from 18 to 83 rural seats while BJP collapsed from 131 to 57, and in Chhattisgarh it grew from 35 to 56 seats while BJP went down from 41 to 16. ... BJP won a famous victory in Uttar Pradesh soon after demonetisation, couched at the time as a class war. But the cumulative labour pains over GST and lack of tangible benefits from demonetisation are now coming home to roost. In MP Congress went from 2 to 17 seats in urban areas, with BJP declining from 44 to 29. In Rajasthan Congress upped its tally from 3 to 17 seats, while BJP fell from 32 to 17. Urban Chhattisgarh, of course, saw a complete BJP rout, including in the capital Raipur. ... Fifth, Rahul was decried by both BJP as a “chunaavi Hindu” and by liberals who saw his temple hopping during the campaign as a cultural surrender to the right. Voters on the ground clearly did not see his Hindu turn as a problem. In fact, as we heard constantly on the campaign trail, it helped beat the BJP charge of Congress being ‘anti-Hindu’, removing the reluctance of many to switch sides. The ‘soft Hindutva’ debate excites drawing rooms in Lutyens’ Delhi but visiting temples may be smart poll strategy on the ground. ... We should be careful in extrapolating state election victories to direct Lok Sabha triumphs – especially when vote-share differences are so narrow in MP and Rajasthan. In 2008, BJP won MP and Chhattisgarh but went on to lose the Lok Sabha polls in these states. These polls may not predict the number of Lok Sabha seats each party will eventually get but they do set the wider political tone and atmosphere. Congress wins in north India give it more heft as the fulcrum of an anti-BJP alliance even as KCR’s huge victory in Telangana opens up additional coalition possibilities. Either way, it will be arithmetic versus personality politics in 2019.》 (Source: 'Alarm bells for BJP: Congress takes big strides, Modi magic waning but still formidable for 2019 polls' by Nalin Mehta at < https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/academic-interest/alarm-bells-for-bjp-congress-takes-big-strides-modi-magic-waning-but-still-formidable-for-2019-polls/?fbclid=IwAR1boIaTf4dV2_W8BAQ6Ds1TfycKXAsu_z5h6Qhq6MWC2UO98UE_AMhNwGo >.) -- Peace Is Doable -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Green Youth Movement" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send an email to [email protected]. Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
