Just because we don't have truly reliable Covid-19 tests (many false
positives and negatives) for either the active disease or antibodies,
does not mean we never will. Or that we don't have some good tests
developed already. It's just that disorganization, shoddy production,
lack of quality control, and in some cases poor test
administration--even mixups at the lab--have rendered many test results
unreliable. Obviously, the tests have to be carefully, well, tested,
then the reliable ones mass produced, and then administered on a wide
scale. We can find out how long antibodies last by using a truly
reliable antibody test and then keeping track of the people with proven
antibodies. I don't believe that most people in the US who had flu-like
or cold-like symptoms in the fall actually had Covid-19.
Just because we don't have an effective treatment (other than trying to
support the patient with oxygen and hoping their body fights off the
infection) does not mean we never will. Remdesivir (which prevents the
virus from replicating) has only provided modest improvements in ICU
patients. I am hoping it is more effective if administered early in the
disease, before the patient is ill enough to need the ICU. I understand
that Remdesivir is being tested for early use, also different ways of
administrating it. And many other drugs are being developed and tested.
I am also hoping that administering oxygen early, with the kind of
machines used for sleep apnea, will be something of a game changer.
Treatment is new and as far as I can tell, the epidemic went on for
weeks before doctors discovered that merely flipping the patients onto
their stomachs provided their organs with significantly more oxygen.
Just because we don't have a vaccine now doesn't mean we never will.
There are over 100 currently at some stage of development and even
testing. Plus there is some hope an old tuberculosis vaccine will help.
Flu is a coronavirus, and there are effective flu vaccines. They have
to be administered annually, but so what? As far as I can tell, there
are no effective vaccines for the common cold because they would not be
profitable enough to develop. There will be huge profit in developing an
effective Covid-19 vaccine, which is a good incentive for drug companies.
So, we will eventually get effective testing, contact tracing,
treatment, and vaccines. I don't think masks are any kind of substitute
for social distancing, but they are useful *in addition to* social
distancing. I'll believe the disease is transmitted by aerosols until
it's proven otherwise. I'd wear an N95 mask if I could get one, but I
can't, so I have to make do with homemade cloth masks. And yes, I want
other people to wear them too. Anyone can have Covid-19 and be
asymptomatic.
I am not one of the people who claims that no one will get a serious
case of Covid-19 unless they are old, or younger with an immune system
problem. That is clearly not true. However, deaths are highly
concentrated in those groups. Though many young, otherwise healthy
people have died too, and a few very old people have survived. It is not
clear to me how common long-term damage to the body may be (from things
like blood clots and organ damage from insufficient oxygen) but some
people are experiencing damage even after "recovery." I am healthy but
I'm 65; my husband is healthy but 68. The immune system declines with
age. We're at high risk right there. Also, deaths are skewed to the
over-60 group because of triage. Overwhelmed hospitals in many
places--even New York from what I hear--are simply refusing to treat
older patients, and in some cases disabled patients. So yeah, most of
those patients die. And the more cases there are in the community, the
less likely people like me will be to get any treatment. And the more
cases there are in the community, the less likely *anyone* will be able
to get treatment for any other diseases.
So I am all for sheltering in place. It's really quite comfortable. My
husband and I sold our San Francisco house in 2016 and moved to a house
in the Sacramento area with 4,800 square feet of living space and 1.8
acres of landscaped grounds. We have fountains, numerous beds of roses,
covered patio, mature trees, everything. The price was an exact trade
for our San Francisco house. It's not a dense area, at all, and we are
right across the street from a golf course. We can run or walk around
the neighborhood at any time of day, and not encounter anyone. I work on
my business. My husband has a to-do list of home improvement projects.
We both do lots of reading. I sew. We have a very large personal library
of books and DVDs, many years' worth of them to enjoy for the first time.
We do everything we did before Covid-19 except go out to
restaurants--which we seldom did anyway. We can do great cooking at
home. We aren't going to the dentist for checkups, but we didn't do that
for fun, and our dentist is open for emergencies (though only for
emergencies) if we have any. We don't go to the hairdresser. But I only
have my hair cut once or twice a year, I always dye my own hair, and I
can cut my husband's. And we order groceries online from any of four
local stores and get curbside pickup. They put the groceries in the
trunk, no contact. The local hardware stores also offer curbside pickup.
Ever since there was an Internet, we've done most of our other shopping
online, including for fabric, so that's nothing new.
So I'm not "cowering in place." Life is just like usual. I'm more
likely to survive than if I insisted on personally picking out my
produce in the grocery store--which isn't much fun anyway.
I'm not looking forward to the "second wave" of Covid-19 in the fall,
because I don't think there will be a vaccine by then. But Governor
Newsom is doing a sensible job of handling sheltering in place in
California. (Though even he approved triage guidelines to deny medical
care to both older people and disabled people. Those guidelines were
taken down after several anti-discrimination groups protested, but I
don't know what is being used instead.) There are a number of other
states where I really, really don't want to be during a pandemic.
Because that second wave will come, in fact in some states the first
wave just won't go away. Not looking forward to the death counts. I
care more about lives than the economy, but a high death toll is also
bad for the economy.
Fran
Lavolta Press
www.lavoltapress.com
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