Certainly one difference is that HCP (i.e., Steve) tends to take the more
conservative approach of regressing a *lot* of potential confounds, which
tends to result in a lower prediction values. You can see that without
confound regression, Steve's prediction is 0.21 versus 0.06.

Regards,
Thomas

On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 1:44 AM, Glasser, Matthew <[email protected]> wrote:

> Perhaps there is an issue related to data clean up or alignment of brain
> areas across subjects.  The Finn study does not appear to have followed the
> recommended approach to either.
>
> Peace,
>
> Matt.
>
> From: <[email protected]> on behalf of Benjamin
> Garzon <[email protected]>
> Date: Thursday, October 5, 2017 at 1:39 PM
> To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
> Subject: [HCP-Users] netmats prediction of fluid intelligence
>
> Dear HCP experts,
>
> I'm trying to reconcile the MegaTrawl prediction of fluid intelligence
> (PMAT24_A_CR)
>
> https://db.humanconnectome.org/megatrawl/3T_HCP820_
> MSMAll_d200_ts2/megatrawl_1/sm203/index.html
>
> (which shows r = 0.06 between predicted and measured scores)
>
> with the Finn 2015 study
>
> https://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/v18/n11/full/nn.4135.html
>
> claiming an r = 0.5 correlation between predicted and measured scores. In
> the article they used a subset of the HCP data (126 subjects), but the
> measure of fluid intelligence is the same one. What can explain the
> considerable difference? As far as I can see the article did not address
> confounding, but even in that case r = 0.21 for MegaTrawl, which is still
> far from 0.5. And this considering that the model used in the article is a
> much simpler one than the MegaTrawl elastic net regressor.
>
> I've been trying to predict fluid intelligence in an independent sample
> with 300 subjects and a netmats + confounds model does not perform better
> than a confounds-only model, more in agreement with the MegaTrawl results.
>
> In the Smith 2015 paper
>
> http://www.nature.com/neuro/journal/v18/n11/full/nn.4125.html
>
> the found mode of covariation with the netmats data correlates with fluid
> intelligence with r = 0.38.
>
> Should I conclude from the Megatrawl analysis (as well as from my own)
> that the single measure of fluid intelligence is not reliable enough to be
> predicted based on connectome data, or am I missing something from the Finn
> paper?
>
> I would be happy to read people 's thoughts about this topic, in view of
> the disparate results in the literature.
>
> Best regards,
>
> Benjamín Garzón, PhD
> Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society
> Aging Research Center | 113
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> ______________________________________
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>
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