Maskhadov's Martyrdom & the Future of Chechen Resistance
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By Kareem M. Kamel |
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�Mujahideen come and go. Those who fought for Maskhadov can rest. For those who fight for Allah, the jihad continues.�
1 � Shamil Basayev, Chechen Separatist Leader
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President Maskhadov, surrounded by the field commanders of the Chechen resistance |
Throughout history, political assassinations aimed at the physical liquidation of influential enemy leaders were a strategy of choice for many states facing separatist conflicts. The strategy usually seeks to demoralize political opponents and de-legitimize what they stand for. It allows statesmen to achieve a largely symbolic, yet swift, �victory� by demonstrating the ability to accurately target and eliminate enemy movements� leaders or ideologues.
But other than the temporary confusion and grief that is often the immediate result of such targeted assassinations, the strategy�s record of political success is undoubtedly poor. The assassination of radical Islamic scholar Dr. Abdullah Azzam in Peshawar, Pakistan, in 1989 failed to demoralize the Arab-Afghans, and instead led to the rise of a more radical generation of fighters who later formed the core of al-Qaeda. Israel�s campaign of �targeted assassinations� of the leaders of Hizbullah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad has failed to subdue resistance and/or achieve any significant, irreversible Israeli gains. Similarly, America�s policy of capturing or killing Islamist leaders or former Baathist officials in Iraq has been equally unsuccessful. In fact, by focusing solely on the liquidation of the political or ideological leaders of an insurgency, the root causes of the conflict remain unaddressed, and are often compounded by increasing radicalization, rather than demoralization, generated by the assassination.
Although the conflict in Chechnya is conservatively estimated to have killed a staggering 100,000 Chechens and created an equal number of refugees over the past decade, it has usually taken headline-grabbing acts of violence and/or assassinations of influential figures to bring the conflict back into the limelight. The Russian-Chechen war is the world�s �forgotten conflict� par excellence.
Russia�s brutality in Chechnya has largely gone unnoticed. In the aftermath of September 11 and the subsequent US �war on terrorism,� Russian president Vladimir Putin justified the Russian military�s brutal policies in Chechnya with the same language used by President Bush, declaring it a war against terrorism in a lawless region which threatened to become a safe haven for al-Qaeda fighters and sympathizers. Putin went so far as to declare that al-Qaeda fighters were already fighting alongside Chechen rebels
2.Evidence suggests a tacit quid pro quo arrangement between the US and Russian administrations, with the Russians providing intelligence support for American troops in Afghanistan and the United States turning a blind eye on Russia�s brutal occupation of Chechnya. In addition, the European Union (EU) seems powerless to influence Russia�s Chechen policy, since it is torn between its alleged disdain for Russia�s violation of Chechen human rights and its desire to maintain its strategic ties with Moscow
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Maskhadov's assassination will strengthen the radicals on both sides of the conflict. |
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The West�s complacency and its hypocritical stance on the occupation of Chechnya have effectively granted the Kremlin a free hand in its dealings with the Chechens. The result has been the continuing oppression of the Chechen people and the complete disregard of their grievances, with no hope of international intervention or mediation on their behalf. This stands in stark contrast to the situation in East Timor or southern Sudan, where Christian separatist causes were supported and endorsed by most Western governments, international organizations, and media outlets.
The assassination of Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov will doubtless become a watershed event around which Russian-Chechen hatreds will coalesce. Maskhadov was a legendary figure to the Chechens, and his status and prestige as a leader were beyond question. He symbolized the Chechen independence movement, and his personal history embodies the hardship faced by the Chechens. Like all Chechens of his generation, he was born in exile in Kazakhstan after Stalin's genocidal deportation of the entire Chechen and Ingush nations, in which half of the 618,000 deportees perished during transportation and the ensuing typhus epidemic
4.Maskhadov�s significance can be traced to his dual role as a pragmatic, determined statesman and a gallant military commander. During wartime, he �skillfully managed to restructure a swiftly mobilized scratch army into an organized, disciplined force capable of repelling Russian tanks, air power, and artillery
5.� But he was also at the forefront of peace negotiations in 1995 and 1996, and was always willing to negotiate a close relationship with Russia, despite his unwavering commitment to Chechen independence. In recent years, Maskhadov tried to distance himself from the more radical wing of the Chechen independence movement, lead by Shamil Basayev, the commander of the Riyad As-Saliheen Sabotage and Reconnaissance Unit.Despite Mashkhadov�s numerous diplomatic overtures and his tireless efforts at making peace with Russia, all his attempts at negotiation were rejected by Moscow. Despite his condemnation of the Beslan school siege in September 2004 and his denial of any personal involvement in the attack, Russian authorities insisted on treating him as a terrorist, offering a $10 million reward for his capture
6. Russian authorities were adamant in their desire to eradicate all Chechen leadership figures, irrespective of their political inclinations or ideological affiliation.|
A Russian soldier in Chechnya displays a skull atop his machine gun |
The martyrdom of Maskhadov is merely the latest manifestation of Russia's indiscriminate assassination policy. Chechnya�s first post-Soviet president, Dzhokhar Dudayev, was killed by Russian forces during the first war in 1996, and his successor, Zelimkhan Yandarbiev, died in a car bombing orchestrated by Russian intelligence in February 2004, while in exile in Qatar
7. Khattab, the famous Arab guerrilla commander, was killed by a poisoned letter in April 2002, and his successor, Abu Al-Waleed Al-Ghamdi, was killed in a battle with Russian military forces in April 2004.A Conflict Radicalized
While some analysts believe that Maskhadov's murder is a vindication of Moscow�s iron-fisted policy in Chechnya and a great blow to the rebels, a closer look at the implications of Russia�s assassination policy and the dynamics of Muslim liberation struggles in the Northern Caucasus suggests otherwise. Despite Maskhadov�s symbolic importance and the widespread legitimacy he enjoyed among his countrymen, it is unclear how successful he had been in recent years in restraining the more radical elements of the Chechen resistance. As a retraining influence who could have paved the way for a peaceful resolution to the conflict, Maskhadov's assassination will undoubtedly strengthen the radicals on both sides of the conflict. With Maskhadov gone, Shamil Basayev�who has claimed responsibility for the Moscow theater and Beslan school sieges that together left nearly 500 people dead�is likely to play an increasingly powerful role in the Chechen resistance.
Basayev recently called upon the Chechens to recognize the former head of Chechnya�s Islamic courts, Abdul-Khalim Saydullayev, as their new president
8. Saydullayev's ascension to power seems to have been the result of a 2002 agreement between Maskhadov and other Chechen leaders. Some analysts predict that Saydullayev will serve as a figurehead for the now-radicalized independence movement, with real power wielded by Basayev9. This is a view popularized by the Russian authorities, as expressed by the Russian-appointed Chechen Mufti, Akhmad-Khadzhi Shamayev, who claimed that Saydullayev would be �a puppet in the hands of Basayev and the militant young generation of extremists.10�The Kremlin's hawks can now claim that, given Basayev�s increasing influence, they have no viable negotiating partner, and hence, they are engaged in a life-and-death struggle with Islamic �terrorists� led by Basayev, rather than with domestic fighters led by a popularly elected Chechen president. As such, hardliners in the Kremlin and among the Russian military establishment will feel free to tighten their grip on Chechnya, now that the man who was recognized as a legitimate representative of the Chechen cause is dead
11.Despite all the speculation, there is no doubt that Maskhadov�s assassination will usher in a new period of polarization, intransigence, and the triumph of those with an apocalyptic vision for and a zero-sum understanding of the Russian-Chechen war.
The Dynamics of Conflict
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Islamist hardliners and Kremlin hawks are now unconstrained by any moderating influences. |
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But Maskhadov's assassination is also likely to have regional repercussions for the Northern Caucasus, given that the dynamics of the conflict in Chechnya are almost the same as in the rest of the region. Indeed, the Chechen war of liberation is understood to be a central theme around which the region's other struggles manifest.
The history of the Northern Caucasus is marked by the primacy of religious identification, combined with a rebellious spirit that has generated heroic resistance. Throughout the decades, Islam has worked as a unifying force for the Northern Caucasians in their wars against the Russian �infidel� colonizer. The collapse of the Soviet Union witnessed an increase in religiosity throughout the region, and the growing prominence of a more fundamentalist Islamism. Hence, current events in the troubled region should be looked at in the historical context, as a response to centuries of genocidal Russian policies aimed at the subjugation of the Muslims of the Caucasus, rather than being simply viewed as "terrorism."
Conclusions
With the assassination of Maskhadov, another violent chapter in the troubled history of Chechnya is about to unfold, with Islamist hardliners and Kremlin hawks unconstrained by any moderating influences. While Chechnya remains the locus of regional politics, the smaller republics of Dagestan, North Ossetia, and Ingushetia are facing similar problems�marginalization, popular dissatisfaction, ethnic tensions, poverty, corrupt local leaders, and the heavy-hand of Russian hegemony. Conflict in the Caucasus is further complicated by superpower rivalry and geopolitical contestation over oil resources.
The Northern Caucasus is seen by Russia as its strategic backyard, and by the United States as a fertile ground for the containment of any potential expansion of the Russian sphere of influence. Indeed, the presence of US military bases in Central Asia and US advisors in nearby Georgia is a telling example of America�s interest, not just in fighting Islamism, but in containing Russia. This intricate security complex, coupled with the absence of any serious attempt at dialogue that is the inevitable consequence of Maskhadov's assassination, suggests the Northern Caucasus will remain a hotbed of simmering hostilities and violent rivalry. The assassination of Maskhadov, a prominent figurehead with popular legitimacy and the only credible Chechen leader calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, is bound to fuel increasing resentment of Russia's heavy-handed domination of the region, and may well trigger an upsurge in anti-Russian activities.
Kareem M. Kamel is an Egyptian analyst based in Cairo, Egypt . He has an MA in International Relations and is specialized in security studies, decision-making, nuclear politics, and Middle East politics. He is currently a PhD candidate at the American University in London, and a teaching assistant to the Political Science Department at the American University in Cairo .
[1] �Chechen warlord vows fight against Russia will continue,� Turkish Press March 9, 2005
[2] Anatol Lieven, �Chechnya After September 11th,� Carnegie Endowment for International Peace March 9, 2002
[3] �Chechen Rebel�s Killing Divides Europeans,� Turkish Press March 9, 2005
[4] Marie Bennigsen, �Chechnya: Political Development and Strategic Implications for the North Caucasus,� Central Asian Survey 18 (December 1999)
[5] �Obituary : Aslan Maskhadov,� BBC News
[7] Steven Lee Myers, �Russians Kill Leader of Chechen Rebels,� International Herald Tribune March 9, 2005
[8] �Chechens Urged to Recognize New Leader,� Al-Jazeera (English) March 10, 2005
[9] Jim Heintz, �Islamic Fundamentalist Judge Emerges as Successor to Chechen Rebel Commander,� Sign on San Diego March 10, 2005
[10] �Basayev Remains Real Leader of Chechen Extremists � Mufti,� Felist.com March 11, 2005
[11] �Maskhadov�s Death Augurs Longer War,� Al-Jazeera (English) March 8, 2005
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