My 2 sen opinion:

Raja Petra is quite selective in his writing about the govt and the
ways the govt manages the economy. If you put things out of context, the
term "hot money" suddenly becoming very alarming. I guest the term "hot
money " is used to represent the liquid funds used specifically for
speculative purposes. It will bring a lot of profit if the luck is on
your side but it also brings a lot of losses if the luck is not on your
side. 

These foreigners who were flushed with liquid funds or its more exotic
term, "hot money" parked their money here in Malaysia as they thought
the time was ripe for the govt to uplift the pegging of RM to USD. They
thought the time was ripe because they saw the economy was and still
fundamentally steady and strong and our economic base was quite broad
compared to the size of our economy. i.e. we have vibrant manufacturing
and services sectors as well as very significant oil industry and it
related sub-sectors plus big money earners in the form of tourism and
agriculture and plantations.

So they might thought it was in the advantage of Malaysia to do the
unpegging because the RM would not weaken against other currencies as a
results of our strong economy. By contrast they also saw that it was not
beneficial for RM to be pegged with USD because USD is currently
depreciating continuosly compared to to other currencies. And they did
not see why RM should be continuosly pegged. So in anticipation of RM
being de-pegged, they parked their money here so that when the govt
unpegged the RM, they would exchange their strong RM to a relatively
weaken USD, so they would get more USD in the process. That could
explain  prediction of an exodus of capital from the local scene. 

However that prediction did not materialise because the govt resorted
to a thing called "managed float" i.e some like a free float but still
still have some attachement with the float in the form of a range of a
band of currencies index or something like that. As a layman I imagine
it to be something like you let your dog out of the house but with a
longer leash attached to the dog. It is not really free but it is not
really pegged either. 
This policy somehow is bad for the foreign managers with the hot money.
They had probably promised the heaven to their investors. But, now the
unpegging of RM now  turned out to an anti-climax for them. Kesian dia
orang. Tapi nak buat macam mana?
Lebih baik dia orang suffer daripada rakyat suffer.
Tak ke gitu!!

Tabik pada Bank Negara Malaysia.                

 

>>> Amir Hamzah  27/07/2005 10:50:35 >>>
Reading through this posting, I was rather 'awed' at the term 'hot
money'  used towards the end. Honestly, I do not have an inkling of what
it meant. It may be one of the jargons used by those in the industry
relating to a commodity very highly in demand. Then again, my mind being
what it is...
 
The very word 'hot', could imply a contraband or illegal item. If such
term is indeed used here, this could  - bearing in mind that I used the
word 'imply' - that Malaysia is a heaven for money laundering. Now if
this scenario is true, what kind of economy are living on?
 
If you'd think this scenario is far fetched, I beg you to reconsider;
remember the VIP who was caught by the Australian authorities with more
than RM1 million of cash in a hand luggage? Remember the BMF Scandal
where much of the stash is still not found? 


Raja Petra Kamarudin <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:Malaysia risks a
massive outflow of capital after allowing its currency to strengthen,
Morgan Stanley said yesterday. It estimated up to US$10-US$15 billion
could flee if speculators give up on the ringgit.

But the investment bank said that the central bank was managing
expectations well so far since the managed float of the ringgit has
introduced trading risk for the foreign exchange market and kept hot
money bullish on Malaysia's currency and assets.

'This management style is ideal, in our view, as Malaysia does not want
its asset markets and financial system to be overly 'traumatised' by the
float,' Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

'The fact that it keeps emphasising that the ringgit is quite fairly
valued at the old 3.8 peg level also serves to keep hot money relatively
'bullish' as regards exchange rate expectations as it limits the
likelihood of a mass exodus.'

A sudden jump in value could trigger an avalanche of profit-taking by
speculators which could damage the economy.

'We estimate that the hot money that has entered Malaysia since June
2003 could be in the region of US$10-US$15 billion,' the bank's
economist Daniel Lian said. 'A massive exodus of such hot money could be
a serious financial and economic management challenge for the Malaysian
authorities.'

Dealers say the central bank has intervened in markets to limit the
rise in the currency to just 1.3 per cent, which economists say still
undervalues the unit, since the seven-year-old peg of 3.8 ringgit per US
dollar was scrapped last week. Hot money inflows and private consumption
growth are dominant features of Malaysia's current economic upswing, the
report said. - Reuters, AFP 

--
Posted by Raja Petra Kamarudin to MT-news at 7/27/2005 08:33:00 AM 

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