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----- Original Message -----
From: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 9:54 AM
Subject: Philippines - Regional Isolation
> Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 20 June 2000
> __________________________________________
> Tomorrow's news is today's intelligence.
> http://www.stratfor.com
> _________________________________________
>
> Manila's Mismanagement: A Reopening for Washington
>
>
> Summary
>
> The Philippine government has warned foreign governments not to
> give in to ransom demands of the Abu Sayyaf, which has held 21
> international hostages in the southern Philippines since April. The
> comment came in response to reports that Malaysia, dissatisfied
> with Manila's handling of the situation, has suggested paying for
> the release of the hostages. Tensions between Manila and Kuala
> Lumpur are heightening as the Philippine government attempts to
> shift domestic and international attention from its inability to
> quickly resolve the hostage situation. In the long term, this
> diversionary tactic will do serious damage to the Philippines'
> relations with its neighbors.
>
> Analysis
>
> The Philippine government June 19 reiterated a warning to foreign
> governments not to give in to ransom demands of the Abu Sayyaf, a
> group that has been holding 21 hostages taken from a Malaysian
> island in April. The statement followed the Malaysian foreign
> minister's suggestion that paying a ransom may be a viable option.
> In addition, Manila threatens to further strain relations with
> Kuala Lumpur by again raising the Philippines' claim of sovereignty
> over the Malaysian state of Sabah.
>
> The government in Manila is increasingly isolating the Philippines
> from its Asian neighbors. It is cultivating a tough image to shift
> the blame and attention away from its inability to resolve domestic
> problems. In the short term, such tensions will further complicate
> negotiations for the release of the hostages. In the longer term,
> the isolation may allow the United States to be drawn back into the
> Philippines.
>
> Since it began almost two months ago, Manila and Kuala Lumpur have
> been split as to how to resolve the hostage situation in the
> southern Philippines. Malaysia has expressed concern at the
> apparent lack of progress in bringing the crisis to an end.
>
> The Philippine government refuses even to consider ransom as an
> option. In contrast, while on a visit to the Philippines June 15
> Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said, "in exceptional
> circumstances like this there would have to be exceptional ways of
> dealing with such matters."
>
> The Philippine government faces mounting international criticism
> and reports that both Malaysia and Germany are considering payment
> for the hostages' release. In order to mitigate negative domestic
> press as well, Manila has begun shifting blame for its inability
> thus far to solve the difficult Abu Sayyaf problem.
>
> For example, Philippine Senator Rodolfo Biazon, chairman of the
> Senate Committee on National Defense and Security, suggested that a
> Malaysian-based crime group was responsible for the kidnapping in
> Sipadan, rather than the Abu Sayyaf, according to ABS-CBN News.
> Biazon implied that this might be a reason behind Kuala Lumpur's
> efforts to "meddle" in the hostage situation.
>
> In addition, Philippine Immigration Commissioner Rufus Rodriguez on
> June 13 called for the expulsion of the Malaysian ambassador to the
> Philippines for his interfering in the hostage negotiations by
> meeting with the Abu Sayyaf in May, according to the Straits Times.
> Rodriguez's recommendation echoed similar calls by Philippine
> senators in May.
>
> The heightened tensions between Manila and Kuala Lumpur are
> symptomatic of the Philippine government's reactionary tactics to
> rebuild popular support and cover for its inability to solve their
> problems. President Joseph Estrada's administration has suffered a
> loss of popular support amid continuing economic malaise, an
> escalation of fighting against separatists in the south and
> accusations of graft and corruption.
>
> The tensions have also spilled over to an older, more deep-seated
> issue. Calls for a review of the Philippine's position on the issue
> of the state of Sabah, claimed by both nations, have again arisen
> in the Philippine Senate.
>
> Raising the issue of Sabah further distracts from the domestic
> issues and potentially plays to nationalism. In addition, the
> Muslim separatist struggle in the Philippines traces its roots back
> to the dispute over Sabah, claiming Philippine military officers
> had several Muslim soldiers executed for refusing to invade Sabah
> in the 1960s.
>
> In response to the increasing crises, the government has cultivated
> Estrada's former tough guy movie image. In dealing with the
> separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), Estrada has
> established a June 30 deadline for peace talks, while refusing to
> let up on the military advance against the rebels. A similar stance
> has been taken toward the Abu Sayyaf, with the military launching
> attacks on members of the group holding Philippine hostages taken
> in a separate incident.
>
> The Philippines' problems are not isolated to Malaysia. Both
> Malaysia and Indonesia have been tagged as training and supporting
> bases for Philippine Muslim separatists - spreading responsibility
> away from the Philippine government.
>
> Manila is also engaged in several economic disputes. A
> confrontation over airline access between the Philippines and
> Taiwan, triggered by Manila's moves to protect Philippine Airlines,
> expanded recently with Taipei banning new Filipino workers from
> coming to Taiwan. Manila is also locked in a trade dispute with
> Canberra over fruits and cattle. These issues as well have
> nationalistic undertones.
>
> In the short term, the beleaguered Philippine government's attempts
> to bolster public support while struggling with its domestic
> problems will only increase stress with Malaysia and other
> neighbors. This could add further difficulties to the hostage
> situation, as impatient foreign governments begin independently
> entering negotiations for the hostages' release. It also becomes an
> exploitable issue for the Abu Sayyaf, who drew attention to the
> status of Sabah in calling for its return to the Philippines as
> part of a hostage settlement.
>
> In the long run, the Philippines threatens to isolate itself from
> its Asian neighbors. Trade and territorial disputes, fueled by
> nationalistic undertones, will further weaken regional ties.
> Already Manila's domestic problems are undermining its regional
> interactions. The Philippine head for the U.N. peacekeeping force
> in East Timor is likely to be replaced by a Thai, as several
> hundred Philippine soldiers withdrew from the operation to deal
> with the fighting in the southern Philippines; the Philippine
> commander is being promoted to tackle problems at home.
>
> The heightened isolation may lead to increased U.S. involvement in
> the Philippines. Unable to defend itself externally and internally,
> Manila may seek a return, albeit a slow and measured one, for U.S.
> military involvement. With U.S. relations waning with China, and
> the potential movement of the Indian navy into the South China Sea,
> the United States will find a rekindled relationship with the
> Philippines to be in their mutual strategic interest.
>
> (c) 2000 WNI, Inc.
> _______________________________________________
> Stratfor.com
> 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701
> Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025
> Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
> Email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
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