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Subject:
[sangkancil] Israel - Submarine (fwd)
Date:
Thu, 26 Oct 2000 16:20:40 +0800 (MYT)
From:
M G G Pillai <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To:
Sang Kancil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
CC:
SK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Wed, 25 Oct 2000 20:24:08 -0500 (CDT)
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: Israel - Submarine
Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 26 October 2000
_________________________________________________
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http://www.stratfor.com/latinamerica/analysis/0010260025.htm
_________________________________________________
Israel Moves - Quickly - To Beef Up Its Submarine Force
Summary
Citing "security reasons", the Israeli government has decided to
speed up the shipment of a new submarine from Germany. Israel
reportedly has plans to equip the submarine to attack land-based
targets with nuclear weapons. Israel does not appear to have
immediate naval security concerns because of its Arab neighbors.
The delivery of the submarine most likely is intended to complete a
nuclear land-attack capability to deter the current crisis from
descending into region-wide war or allow Israel to fight one, if
necessary.
Analysis
The Tekuma, the last of three new, German-built, Dolphin-class
submarines, has been rushed from Germany to Israel for "security
reasons", an army spokesman said on military radio Oct. 24. The
craft has been in Germany while the crew underwent training.
The Israeli military appears to be completing the development of a
second-strike nuclear land-attack capability. Fighting between
Palestinians and Israelis is likely to go on for months. And if
tension in the Middle East descends into regional war, damaging
Israel's land-based nuclear weapons, the Israeli navy can still
field a surviving submarine-based force capable of launching an
attack.
Despite the progress that has been made, the regional crisis has
not yet ended. Although the key regional actor, Egypt, has made a
strategic choice for peace, anti-Israeli sentiment continues to
build, inflamed by continued violence in the Palestinian
territories. In a weakened state, Israel's prime minister is
increasingly desperate and his government appears, as a result, to
have hastened delivery of the new submarine.
_______________________________________________________________
For more on the Middle East and Africa, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/default.htm
_____________________________________________________________
Tekuma is the last of three Dolphin-class submarines, built and
largely subsidized by Germany expressly for deployment by the
Israeli navy in Mediterranean waters. The German decision to
underwrite the Israeli Dolphin program stems from the 1991 Persian
Gulf War, when Iraq struck Israel with Scuds, equipped with
warheads at least partially developed by German firms.
Subsequently, Helmut Kohl, the chancellor at the time, offered
military assistance, including construction of two of the three
Dolphin submarines. The Germans helped pay for the first two;
Israel financed the Tekuma.
The diesel-powered Dolphins will reportedly replace Israel's three
aging German submarines, which entered service in 1977. The 187-
foot Tekuma weighs 1,700 tons and can accommodate a crew of 35 for
more than one month of continuous operations. The Dolphin class is
designed for interdiction, surveillance and special-forces
operations and is designed to travel at maximum speeds of 20 knots
with a cruising range of 4,500 nautical miles. The vessel has 10
torpedo tubes and is capable of launching Harpoon missiles.
While the vessel is designed for a standard attack role, Israel has
comparatively little to fear from the Egyptian or Syrian navies.
The Egyptian navy is primarily focused on coastal defense and its
submarine fleet only consists of four old Romeo class patrol
submarines. The last significant improvement of its navy was in
1996; the four subs underwent a $133 million upgrade to acquire the
capability to fire anti-ship missiles and NT37 wire-guided
torpedoes. The Syrian navy is in worse shape; its three Romeo class
submarines are non-operational, according to London's International
Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). At least one reportedly
sank pier-side in the mid-1990s.
Israel's eagerness to deploy the submarine probably is intended as
a deterrent to regional war. Jane's International Defense Review
(IDR) reported in September 1999 that sources close to the German
construction project said Israel was planning to equip the Dolphins
with a nuclear land-attack capability shortly after the submarine's
arrival. This was to be done by modifying U.S.-supplied Sub-Harpoon
missiles with an indigenously developed nuclear warhead and
guidance kit. Each Dolphin would reportedly be able to carry five
modified Sub-Harpoons, with a range of 80 miles, as well as 16
torpedoes.
__________________________________________________________________
For more on Israel, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Israel/default.htm
_____________________________________________________________
As well, Israel clearly has an interest in land-attack missiles. In
January, Israel asked the United States to sell it 50 Tomahawk
land-attack cruise missiles to enhance its deep-strike capabilities
under its wide-ranging strategic defense program, according to
Jane's Missiles and Rockets. It was not clear whether Israel was
seeking air- or sea-launched variants, but the mission of the
Israeli navy traditionally coastal defense and maritime supply
route protection is expanding to include a stronger deterrent and
survivable nuclear-strike capability.
Washington rejected Israel's request in March, prompting concern
that Israel may develop its own indigenous long-range cruise
missile. Shortly after the rejection, an Israeli official told
Defense News, "History has taught us that we cannot wait
indefinitely for Washington to satisfy our military requirements.
If this weapon system is denied to us, we will have little choice
but to activate our own defense industry in pursuit of this needed
capability."
Indeed, Israel may have already developed cruise missiles on its
own. The London Sunday Times reported June 18 that Israel had test-
fired domestic-produced cruise missiles from its newly acquired
Dolphin-class submarine off Sri Lanka in May. And the U.S. National
Air Intelligence Center warned the U.S. Congress in July 1998 that
Israel was developing a cruise missile believed to be the Rafael-
produced Popeye Turbo missile with a range of 215 miles that was
expected to be operational by 2002. Although the Popeye Turbo is
promoted as an air-launched weapon, it may be adapted for submarine
launch.
If Israel has managed to create its own submarine-launched cruise
missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, it would mark a
major step in its nuclear capability and throw the balance of power
further in Israel's favor.
Israel is clearly concerned that the current crisis still has
potential to pull in surrounding Arab nations and blow up into a
regional war. Israeli military doctrine has always focused on
immediate threats from its Arab neighbors, strong deterrence and a
first-strike capability. Israel may be hoping its increased
readiness will further deter Arab nations from involving themselves
in a larger war.
_______________________________________________
(c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc.
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