Thursday, 15, November 2001

Kabul was taken. Real game will begin now

Citizens of Kabul did not forget brutality of the band of Uzbek General Dostum, whose soldiers were noted here in 1992-1996 as robbers and killers.

Taliban without resistance left Kabul to formations of Northern Alliance, likewise, entangled the maps of Americans and their allies on anti-Afghan coalition. According to reports of western Mass-Media, reaction of Washington to the last events in Afghanistan is so far mixed. Generals voice satisfaction, diplomats express concern. Judging by information filtering into American press, during the negotiations at higher level in Texas was observed some signs of confusion.

In the White House, very careful statements were made. They are concerned by the fact that rapid advance of the forces of Northern alliance on the territory of Afghanistan can complicate the creation of broad-based government. President Bush is busy in negotiations with his best friend, Vladimir, requested his administration not to hurry and not to make loud statements. Even he stated on Saturday that troops of opposition so far should not enter into Afghan capital - first, because against this step speaks Pakistan, but in the second place, because in America they count: military development of campaign must not go more rapid than political.

In the capital of USA also they fear, that with withdrawal of Taliban from Kabul can increase chaos in the city. Citizens of Kabul did not forget the brutality of the bands of Uzbek General Dostum, whose soldiers were noted here in 1992-1996 as robbers and killers, and similar to that has already been repeated: groupings of killers, robbers and marauders of opposition are acting in all seized cities.

Washington does not clearly want that Northern Alliance would individually take the authority in Afghanistan. This already occurred in the middle of 90-ies, and then, as consider now Americans, consequences were catastrophic. Even more actively against this turn of events speaks Pakistan. Well and there is no real coalition as yet and to the nearest prospect will not foresee. Dissatisfaction in connection with the passage of Kabul into the hands of Northern Alliance expressed the representative of the former king of Afghanistan, Mohammad Zahir Shah.

In the United Nations, was called, in the opinion of USA and his allies, to solve the question about future of Afghanistan, also reigns uncertainty, since all attempts to create coalition government so far conclude without result. Disputes are conducted not only about that, who will lead the country after the possible fall of Taliban – even it is not clear, who can enter into the temporary government of Afghanistan. In the staff office of United Nations no one experiences special enthusiasm in this connection.

Meanwhile, as suggested by analytics of BBC, entrance of the forces of anti-Taliban opposition into Kabul basically changes military situation in Afghanistan. It is so far not clear, as more events will be developed. Whether Northern Alliance will decide to attack on the territory of Pashtuns? It is possible that precisely there, and, in particular, in Kandahar area will now occur fierce fighting themselves.

- Fall of Kabul, in reality, inevitably concludes correspondent of BBC, Thomas Marcus – for which, there are two reasons: first, troops of opposition in the time of approach in the north of the country got moral and they advanced in many respects because of the inertial force. In the second place, Taliban, as assumed, made decision to leave city, already for a temporary relief, which they are experiencing now.

So far it is not clear, whether fall of Kabul will lead to destruction of the fighting machinery of Taliban. Americans will for sure continue bombardments of their positions; however, very motion of war, most likely, noticeably will change, concludes correspondent of BBC.

This is fact that Americans do not have now other allies in Afghanistan, except Northern Alliance, whose commanders, possibly, will decide not to hurry with the advance to the territory, whose large part is composed of Pashtun. This motion can prove to be counter-productive: Washington strategists now attempt to secure by support to the precisely Pashtun part of the population of Afghanistan.

Meanwhile on the assertion of German journalist, Christoph Kherstel, for whom was possible during these days to fall into Kabul, there prevails not only hatred for the Americans, but also still something, that perhaps one ought not to exaggerate, but it is necessary to know. Thousands of people took oath on Quran, that, if Osama Ben Laden will be killed, each of them would kill one American as revenge. So that, in spite of the fall of Kabul, attitude of Afghans toward Americans remains as before negative.

- Taliban recognized that they are losing one province after another, but they call this organized withdrawal. And in reality it is so. Usual Afghan tactics was neglected in the course. When, as you see, the enemy obtained such serious foreign aid, Taliban stepped back in order to avoid losses. This is very good method for abridging losses, from both sides. Taliban indicate even that they want to avoid large bloodshed with �brother-Afghans�, who resist them in the north, says Christoph Kherstel'.

To question that whether he feels the traces of the collapse of the regime of Taliban in Kabul, indeed one of the hopes of Americans and Britons was the fact that Afghans before face of the intense bombings should overthrow its rulers, German journalist said the following:

- No, exactly this I do not see completely.

In the opinion of international observers, intense bombings did not divide Afghans, but on the contrary, these joined them still closer. They do not here exclude the possibility of general national reconciliation�� in the name of organized resistance to Americans and to their allies. Judging by everything, taking by forces of the Northern Alliance of the capital of Afghanistan yet does not indicate the end of war. There is a sensation of the fact that on contrary, all only begins now.

Jean Tekey, �Kavkaz-Center�

 

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