---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Peter Custers <[email protected]>
Date: Thu, Mar 31, 2011 at 7:38 PM
Subject: write-up on genesis Japan's nuclear disaster
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Dear Friends,



Below is my second write-up on the Japan nuclear disaster.
Please, feel free to distribute.
I would appreciate being informed in case of further publication.
Very best wishes,
 
(Dr.) Peter Custers
 
 
JAPAN’S NUCLEAR CRISIS:
GENESIS OF AN INTERNATIONAL CATASTROPHE
 
It is humanly difficult to accept. Yet the worst fears nuclear opponents have 
voiced for years are becoming true in the nuclear disaster unfolding in Japan. 
End March, we were almost three weeks into the catastrophe at Fukushima-Daiichi 
that began on the 11th. Within days it was apparent that the country was likely 
to face a massive problem of radiation, with the concomitant risks of increased 
cancer deaths for Japan’s population. Now, as the failures of the nuclear 
complex’s owner, TEPCO, to timely re-establish the functioning of the cooling 
systems in all four damaged reactors is all too apparent, - there is an 
increasing likelihood that the crisis will turn into an international 
catastrophe. Thus, according to European nuclear experts, a massive bubble of 
melted fuel rods and metal has probably formed on the bottom of nuclear reactor 
no.3.  Coincidentally, it is precisely this reactor where plutonium has been 
used as a part of  mixed,
 uranium-plutonium, fuel rods. Plutonium is the very most toxic element on 
earth. Even digestion or inhalation of miniscule quantities are likely to cause 
lung, bone and liver cancer in humans. Experts disagree over whether the 
lava-type boiling bubble could seek its way through the concrete socle of the 
reactor. It is also possible that the bubble will leak sideways. Already, 
extremely high levels of radiation have been registered in the turbine hall of 
one of the reactors, and in samples taken nearby from the sea. No less 
alarming: plutonium has been traced at four or five different spots in the soil 
near the complex.
 
Further, as the nuclear crisis deepens and slowly takes on an Armageddon shape, 
soul searching is slowly starting over the lack of foresight by Japan’s 
policymakers. First, it is well known internationally that Japan is a nation 
prone to earthquakes and tsunamis. The very word tsunami is a Japanese word, 
and the capital Tokyo has repeatedly been visited by major earthquakes in 
history. Further, the huge tsunami floods that were thrown up in the past make 
living along the coast by nature very hazardous. The tsunamis which ravaged 
Japan in 1896 and 1933 for instance, according to Japanese geologists resulted 
in flood waves respectively 38 and 29 meters in height. The flood waves that 
hit Japan’s coast on March the 11th did not have this towering size for sure. 
Yet they were thrice as tall as the wall of protection which had been built 
near the Fukushima-Daiichi complex, to protect it against the effects of a 
potential tsunami. When the complex was
 constructed, some forty years back, account was taken not of tsunamis which 
have previously occurred in Japan itself, - but of the tsunami in faraway Chili 
in 1956! Government guidelines on the security of nuclear reactors reportedly 
ignored the thematic of tsunamis until 2006. Hence, the Japanese authorities 
have arguably provoked the nuclear disaster themselves, by ignoring the 
possibility that Fukushima-Daiichi’s system of electricity generators would be 
overwhelmed by sea water – as has occurred.
 
Secondly, not only had Japan been forewarned by its own experts and political 
critics that tsunamis and/or earthquakes represent grave potential risks for 
the country’s population. In fact, sufficient practical experience at Japan’s 
nuclear reactors had been gained, - experience on which more prudent 
policymakers could build. The most telling example is the severe earthquake 
which damaged the country’s largest nuclear plant in Kashiwazaki, in 2007.  
According to several stories published these last weeks, - the Kashiwazaki 
nuclear complex was built in an active seismic area, i.e. on a line of fracture 
for a potential earthquake. Further, the complex turned out not to be equipped 
to face an earthquake with the force that struck that year, i.e. an earthquake 
6.8 in strength on the scale of Richter. Like the Fukushima nuclear plant, the 
Kashiwazaki complex happens to be owned by TEPCO, the Tokyo Electric Power 
Company which is known to be one of the
 largest electricity corporations worldwide. Subsequent to the 2007 accident, 
TEPCO was severely criticized by the Japanese government. One of the problems 
it reportedly had under-estimated, is the problem of radioactive water leaking 
into the sea. Thus, blame was duly apportioned. Yet with hindsight it is all 
too evident that no efforts were made – either by TEPCO or by the Japanese 
government – to rethink the country’s US-inspired nuclear energy policies.
 
The genesis of the Fukushima disaster consists of yet a third important 
element. This element raises questions regarding the way the entire nuclear 
lobby operates, - the lobby notably consisting in the Japanese Ministry of 
Economics, inspection bodies and the country’s  powerful energy corporations. 
In 2002, 10 Japanese electricity suppliers were charged with having 
dissimulated accidents in nuclear reactors, - scandalous practices which 
started way back in the 1970s, when Japan had barely entered the nuclear era. 
Fukushima’s operator company TEPCO again was the prime target of the given 
scandal! Striking details regarding this history of falsification have just 
been revealed by a reliable source, i.e. Eisaku Sato. Between 1998 and 2006 
Sato was the, very popular, governor of the Fukushima prefecture. In a recent 
interview in the French daily Le Monde, Sato has stated that TEPCO in 2002 was 
forced to admit it had falsified inspection reports on the
 damages to two reactor cores caused in previous accidents. Moreover, not only 
had TEPCO falsified crucial documents. Japan’s nuclear security agency NISA, 
when finding out about the falsifications, had also kept quiet and had failed 
to expose the truth.  The scandal triggered the temporary closure of reactor 
no.1 of Fukushima. It also led to repeat inspections of 16 reactors elsewhere, 
but not to any structural changes. Hence, Sato does not hesitate to term the 
present catastrophe as one induced by ‘lack of human prudence’. The ageing of 
the Japan’s park of nuclear reactors played its role in making accidents 
increasingly likely. But the lack of democracy with regard to 
energy-policymaking too was bound to take its toll.
 
What lessons to draw from these stories on the human failures that triggered 
the Fukushima catastrophe? Given the huge interests that are at stake – the 
power of the nuclear lobby in Japan and worldwide -,  it is quite likely that 
policymakers will seek to apportion personal and institutional blame, so as to 
be able to continue with production of nuclear energy. That danger is already 
evident. Thus, faced with growing public anger by the country’s population, the 
government of Japan has stated that it is considering nationalization of TEPCO. 
Such a measure may serve to pre-empt bankruptcy for the institution bearing 
primary responsibility for the catastrophe. Yet it may easily help turn 
attention away from more fundamental questions which need to be posed. Leading 
international critics and opponents have for years argued that full-scale 
ecological catastrophes such as have twice occurred in the former Soviet Union 
-  in the military-nuclear complex
 of Cheliabinsk in 1957, and in the civilian nuclear complex of Chernobyl in 
1986 – sooner or later were bound to occur elsewhere. Isn´t it time the wisdom 
of continuing with nuclear energy be radically questioned? To restate 
Fukushima’s provisional lesson for the world: nuclear production is inherently 
hazardous, and corporate owners profiting from the sale of nuclear energy have 
an inherent interest in belittling the risks.
 
Dr. Peter Custers
(Author of a theoretical study on nuclear production)
Special to Prothom Alo and The Daily Star, Bangladesh
Leiden, the Netherlands, March 30, 2011
www.petercusters.nl

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