Halo Pak Rovicky, Ya, yang dimaksud oleh Dr. McCloskey adalah segmen zona subduksi Mentawai yang sudah sering kita seminarkan itu ke masyarakat waktu program IAGI Januari-Februari kemarin. Segmen Nias yang meledak Maret kemarin itu juga sudah kita warningkan ke publik waktu seminar di Medan (awal Februari (?) lalu) juga di G. Sitoli Nias awal Maret (Oleh Hariadi Permana Cs).
Reaksi masyarakat Padang (Sumbar) terhadap persiapan apabila terjadi gempa besar dan tsunami dari Mentawai sangat positip. Sudah banyak langkah nyata yang dilakukan oleh mereka, baik dari pihak pemerintahan ataupun swasta. Misalnya, kita sudah terlibat pembicaraan dengan pihak swasta dan sesepuh Sumbar (termasuk Pak Emil Salim). Kita dengan bantuan peta topografi detil dari pihak swasta dan PU Padang sudah membuat perkiraan sebaran daerah bahaya tsunami. Hasilnya, mereka sekarang sudah membuat peta jalur evakuasi apabila terjadi tsunami. Kepala PU-nya juga katanya berencana akan memperlebar dan membuat jalan raya untuk jalur evakuasi. Pak Febrin dari Unan, ahli geoteknik, sekarang sudah mulai meng-inventarisasi bangunan-bangunan mana di Padang yang akan atau tidak tahan apabila digoncang gempa nanti. Hotel BumiMinang juga sudah membuat pengumuman umum untuk prosedur evakuasi Hotel apabila ada gempa besar, dll. Di AirBAngis, masyarakat sana malah sudah menyiapkan barak-barak di bukit untuk persiapan ngungsi. Jadi mudah-mudahan perkembangan ini benar-benar akan banyak menyelamatkan jiwa. Dan SumBAr bisa menjadi contoh tauladan dunia nantinya dalam masalah mengantisipasi bencana alam. Ten Pada tanggal 11 Juni ini rencananya akan ada latihan evakuasi masyarakat. Di salah satu wilayah Kota Padang yang melibatkan masyarakat dan anak sekolah. Ada pihak IAGI yang ingin terlibat/hadir dalam acara ini? Salam, Danny Hilman N -----Original Message----- From: Rovicky Dwi Putrohari [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, June 09, 2005 10:26 PM To: [email protected]; Himpunan Ahli Geofisika Indonesia (HAGI) Subject: [iagi-net-l] Strong quakes 'imminent' off Sumatra Apakah ini sama dengan segmen mentawai yg diduga Pak Danny itu, atau yang lain, atau .... Ada yg bisa kasi penjelasan ? Please, Pak Wahyu, Pak Danny ... ?? RDP http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Strong-quakes-imminent-off-Sumatra/2 005/06/09/1118123928000.html?oneclick=true ================================== Strong quakes 'imminent' off Sumatra By Richard Macey June 9, 2005 - 10:55AM Graphic: Nathaneal Scott A scientist who predicted the second Indonesian earthquake fears a third devastating jolt, powerful enough to cause another major tsunami, is "imminent". The waves could sweep north-western Australia, reaching as far as Perth. John McCloskey, of the University of Ulster, said building the Indian Ocean tsunami warning system was "an urgent priority". "Don't take the foot off the gas. This is very urgent work." In mid March, Professor McCloskey warned that the Boxing Day quake, which triggered the tsunami that killed 300,000 people, had shifted tectonic stresses to another spot on Sumatra's geological fault line. He predicted a second strong quake, noting many did not believe lightning could strike twice. "But with earthquakes it's exactly the opposite ... I quite honestly hope we're completely wrong." He wasn't. The second quake, measuring 8.3, struck on March 28 near the Simeulue and Nias islands, killing 2000 people. In a new study, published in Nature, Professor McCloskey's team reports that "stresses imposed by the second rupture have brought closer to failure" another zone "immediately to the south, under the Batu and Mentawai islands". "The historical record and the experience of the Sumatra-Andaman and Simeulue-Nias events indicate that a tsunami could be a possibility." Professor McCloskey told the Herald it would likely strike near the Mentawai islands, triggering a repeat performance of the 8.5 quake of 1833. "The 1833 earthquake is probably a reasonable model. It did trigger a tsunami and there were many casualties. That's the type of earthquake we fear it definitely could be." Professor McCloskey noted that the 1833 tsunami reached north-western Australia. Next time "the waves would be felt in Perth," he said, adding he could not say how strong they would be. It was impossible to say when it would happen, but the evidence, including historical data, showed it could be within 30 years, following the pattern of the 1833 and 1861 Sumatra quakes. "It may be sooner. We must assume it's imminent and behave accordingly. We can't bury our heads in the sand." Commenting on his last prediction, Professor McCloskey said: "I've very mixed feelings." He had "a sense of professional satisfaction that our science has started to understand well" earthquakes. "I hope I am wrong this time, but I don't think so. It's not something you get any pleasure out of ... even though with the last one we were very accurate." While a "high tech" warning system would protect people around the Indian Ocean, there would be no time to alert Sumatra. A program was needed to teach them how to save themselves. "People need to plan what to do in Sumatra when they feel the earth shake. You have 15 to 20 minutes to get yourself into a position safe from the tsunami." -- Education can't stop natural disasters from occurring, but it can help people prepare for the possibilities --- --------------------------------------------------------------------- To unsubscribe, send email to: iagi-net-unsubscribe[at]iagi.or.id To subscribe, send email to: iagi-net-subscribe[at]iagi.or.id Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id IAGI-net Archive 1: http://www.mail-archive.com/iagi-net%40iagi.or.id/ IAGI-net Archive 2: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/iagi Komisi Sedimentologi (FOSI) : Ratna Asharina (Ratna.Asharina[at]santos.com)-http://fosi.iagi.or.id Komisi SDM/Pendidikan : Edy Sunardi(sunardi[at]melsa.net.id) Komisi Karst : Hanang Samodra(hanang[at]grdc.dpe.go.id) Komisi Sertifikasi : M. 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Suryowibowo(soeryo[at]bp.com) Komisi OTODA : Ridwan Djamaluddin(ridwan[at]bppt.go.id atau [EMAIL PROTECTED]), Arif Zardi Dahlius(zardi[at]bdg.centrin.net.id) Komisi Database Geologi : Aria A. Mulhadiono(anugraha[at]centrin.net.id) ---------------------------------------------------------------------
