Meet the players helping drive oil to new lows http://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-players-helping-drive-oil-to-new-lows-2014-11-04
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, can be a fearsome cartel when it's members all pull together and global economic conditions, namely solidly rising oil demand, work in its favor. But the situation can get ugly when production is in disarray, non-OPEC oil is flowing fast and demand has petered. That's the case right now and it's making for an interesting melodrama as oil prices CLZ4, -0.03% <http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clz4?mod=MW_story_quote> trade at three-year lows. Here are the key players inside and outside of the cartel: 1. Saudi Arabia The world's largest petroleum exporter is the most important player in OPEC. A decision Monday by Saudi Arabia to cut crude prices for December delivery to the U.S. market sparked another leg down in oil futures. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has shown no inclination to throttle back production and serve its usual role as the world's swing oil producer. "Oil prices have been falling first and foremost because of the excessive supply of the stuff and more recently due to a growing number of OPEC members defecting as they produce more oil than agreed," said Fawad Razaqzada, analyst at Forex.com. "News that Saudi has cut its asking price to customers in the U.S. suggests even the largest OPEC producer is now worried about its market share. This does not bode well for the future of the cartel." 2. North America North America's shale-oil boom is contributing to a global glut in crude oil. And the fact the Saudis lowered prices for the U.S. market while raising prices for Asia and Europe -- albeit after consecutive price cuts -- was taken by some analysts as confirmation that Saudis are all about derailing higher-cost North American producers. See: Can Saudis beat North Dakota in an oil price war? <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-saudis-beat-north-dakota-in-an-oil-price-war-2014-10-08> The Saudis see predictions that U.S. oil imports "could fall to zero by 2037 as a reason they need to nip the U.S. oil producer in the bud," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. "They are threatened by U.S. oil production and they are acting to try to break the U.S. producer's back." 3. Venezuela While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates enjoy enough of a financial buffer to cut production if they were so inclined, other OPEC members don't have the luxury and have to keep pumping as much oil as possible to finance government spending, note analysts <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lower-oil-prices-carry-big-geopolitical-consequences-2014-11-04> at political risk consulting firm Stratfor. Of those, Venezuela is the most at risk for major political repercussions, they said in a Tuesday note: "A decrease in revenue flowing into government accounts is likely to hamper the government's ability to fund imports, thereby exacerbating the current shortages of food and consumer goods. The distribution of these heavily subsidized items has been crucial to securing the public's support for the government." Moreover, Venezuela is most likely to see Saudi Arabia's price cuts as an affront, says Commerzbank strategist Eugen Weinberg. That's because the country "mainly supplies the U.S. market and was one of the few OPEC members to demand that measures be taken to shore up oil prices," he says. 4. Russia Russia is arguably the world's largest oil producer. Sanctions and weak oil prices have combined to take a toll on the country's currency. Russia's central bank hiked rates aggressively last week in an attempt to halt the Russian ruble's steep slide, though some analysts thought the measures smacked of panic. Collapsing oil prices won't help the situation. Even if the decline is largely over, prices are likely to remain near current levels for some time, said Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "At the same time, capital outflows are likely to remain high. We estimate that over $100 billion will flow out of Russia this year. All of this is a recipe for a weak ruble." 5. Norway A beneficiary of the North Sea oil boom, Norway hasn't become addicted to spending its petroleum-fueled largesse. It's used the proceeds to build one of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. But that doesn't mean Norway won't have to adjust to lower oil prices <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/norway-to-spend-more-oil-cash-to-counter-slowdown-2014-10-08-44854058>. In a Tuesday report, the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway warned that a "steep, lasting fall in the price of oil could have major negative effects on the Norwegian economy." Oil-related production earnings will take a hit while a further drop in the oil price will intensify a drop in oil investment, the agency said, noting that "other industries and households stand to be affected by reduced activity in the oil sector." Salam, Razi ---------------------------------------------------- Siapkan waktu PIT IAGI ke-43 Mark your date 43rd IAGI Annual Convention & Exhibition JAKARTA,15-18 September 2014 ---------------------------------------------------- Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id Hubungi Kami: http://www.iagi.or.id/contact ---------------------------------------------------- Iuran tahunan Rp.250.000,- (profesional) dan Rp.100.000,- (mahasiswa) Pembayaran iuran anggota ditujukan ke: Bank Mandiri Cab. Wisma Alia Jakarta No. Rek: 123 0085005314 Atas nama: Ikatan Ahli Geologi Indonesia (IAGI) Bank BCA KCP. Manara Mulia No. Rekening: 255-1088580 A/n: Shinta Damayanti ---------------------------------------------------- Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] ---------------------------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: IAGI disclaims all warranties with regard to information posted on its mailing lists, whether posted by IAGI or others. In no event shall IAGI or its members be liable for any, including but not limited to direct or indirect damages, or damages of any kind whatsoever, resulting from loss of use, data or profits, arising out of or in connection with the use of any information posted on IAGI mailing list. ----------------------------------------------------
