Gimana dengan Angola yang katanya bisa 25 dollar lebih murah? On Nov 5, 2014 10:58 AM, "Muhammad Razi" <mufar...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Meet the players helping drive oil to new lows > > > http://www.marketwatch.com/story/meet-the-players-helping-drive-oil-to-new-lows-2014-11-04 > > The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, can be a > fearsome cartel when it’s members all pull together and global economic > conditions, namely solidly rising oil demand, work in its favor. But the > situation can get ugly when production is in disarray, non-OPEC oil is > flowing fast and demand has petered. That’s the case right now and it’s > making for an interesting melodrama as oil prices CLZ4, -0.03% > <http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/clz4?mod=MW_story_quote> trade > at three-year lows. Here are the key players inside and outside of the > cartel: > > 1. Saudi Arabia > > The world’s largest petroleum exporter is the most important player in > OPEC. A decision Monday by Saudi Arabia to cut crude prices for December > delivery to the U.S. market sparked another leg down in oil futures. > Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has shown no inclination to throttle back > production and serve its usual role as the world’s swing oil producer. > > “Oil prices have been falling first and foremost because of the excessive > supply of the stuff and more recently due to a growing number of OPEC > members defecting as they produce more oil than agreed,” said Fawad > Razaqzada, analyst at Forex.com. “News that Saudi has cut its asking price > to customers in the U.S. suggests even the largest OPEC producer is now > worried about its market share. This does not bode well for the future of > the cartel.” > > 2. North America > > North America’s shale-oil boom is contributing to a global glut in crude > oil. And the fact the Saudis lowered prices for the U.S. market while > raising prices for Asia and Europe — albeit after consecutive price cuts — > was taken by some analysts as confirmation that Saudis are all about > derailing higher-cost North American producers. See: Can Saudis beat > North Dakota in an oil price war? > <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/can-saudis-beat-north-dakota-in-an-oil-price-war-2014-10-08> > > The Saudis see predictions that U.S. oil imports “could fall to zero by > 2037 as a reason they need to nip the U.S. oil producer in the bud,” said > Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group. “They are > threatened by U.S. oil production and they are acting to try to break the > U.S. producer’s back.” > > 3. Venezuela > > While Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates enjoy enough of a > financial buffer to cut production if they were so inclined, other OPEC > members don’t have the luxury and have to keep pumping as much oil as > possible to finance government spending, note analysts > <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lower-oil-prices-carry-big-geopolitical-consequences-2014-11-04> > at political risk consulting firm Stratfor. > > Of those, Venezuela is the most at risk for major political repercussions, > they said in a Tuesday note: “A decrease in revenue flowing into government > accounts is likely to hamper the government’s ability to fund imports, > thereby exacerbating the current shortages of food and consumer goods. The > distribution of these heavily subsidized items has been crucial to securing > the public’s support for the government.” > > Moreover, Venezuela is most likely to see Saudi Arabia’s price cuts as an > affront, says Commerzbank strategist Eugen Weinberg. That’s because the > country “mainly supplies the U.S. market and was one of the few OPEC > members to demand that measures be taken to shore up oil prices,” he says. > > 4. Russia > > Russia is arguably the world’s largest oil producer. Sanctions and weak > oil prices have combined to take a toll on the country’s currency. Russia’s > central bank hiked rates aggressively last week in an attempt to halt the > Russian ruble’s steep slide, though some analysts thought the measures > smacked of panic. > > Collapsing oil prices won’t help the situation. Even if the decline is > largely over, prices are likely to remain near current levels for some > time, said Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital > Economics. “At the same time, capital outflows are likely to remain high. > We estimate that over $100 billion will flow out of Russia this year. All > of this is a recipe for a weak ruble.” > > 5. Norway > > A beneficiary of the North Sea oil boom, Norway hasn’t become addicted to > spending its petroleum-fueled largesse. It’s used the proceeds to build one > of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds. > > But that doesn’t mean Norway won’t have to adjust to lower oil prices > <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/norway-to-spend-more-oil-cash-to-counter-slowdown-2014-10-08-44854058>. > In a Tuesday report, the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway warned > that a “steep, lasting fall in the price of oil could have major negative > effects on the Norwegian economy.” > > Oil-related production earnings will take a hit while a further drop in > the oil price will intensify a drop in oil investment, the agency said, > noting that “other industries and households stand to be affected by > reduced activity in the oil sector.” > > Salam, > Razi > > > ---------------------------------------------------- > Siapkan waktu PIT IAGI ke-43 > Mark your date 43rd IAGI Annual Convention & Exhibition > JAKARTA,15-18 September 2014 > ---------------------------------------------------- > Visit IAGI Website: http://iagi.or.id > Hubungi Kami: http://www.iagi.or.id/contact > ---------------------------------------------------- > Iuran tahunan Rp.250.000,- (profesional) dan Rp.100.000,- (mahasiswa) > Pembayaran iuran anggota ditujukan ke: > Bank Mandiri Cab. 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