The depending answer is 100% correct except when its wrong. :-)
You cannot forecast without knowing the past and it is the that will tell you whether you need peak or average or more probably a mix.
Hypothetically consider a CEC running at 100% busy. However simplistically this is a 80/20 split between online (including DBMS) and batch. The online is peaking at 80 whilst the batch averages 20. If the forecast is for a 30% increase in online then you probably should be working of the peak figure moderating it with whatever the batch can forgo. For a 30% increase in batch the average of 20 could probably be used.
A highly simplistic arguement that probably wouldn't get a prize in a Capacity Management/Performance class
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