McAfee says they can detect the encrytped zip files.
http://vil.nai.com/vil/content/v_101074.htm
They can't detect Bagle.J when it is sent in encrypted .ZIP files.
AV programs can detect *some* files in encrypted .ZIP files, if they are static. The one at that URL is static. Bagle.J is not. The only way they can detect Bagle.J is to analyze the file sizes and CRCs and hope they find a pattern, which is unlikely. Even if they do, the next variant will widely vary the file size and ensure that the CRCs do not duplicate.
-Scott
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