On 5 aug 2008, at 14:59, Spencer Dawkins wrote:
So that means a single IPv4 address can support about 3000 subscribers.
... the "planning for 500 connections per user" reference in the plenary presentation last week was way higher than I've heard previously, but the working number from the P2PI workshop in May was about 80 for BitTorrent, wasn't it? So we're already looking at a factor-of-two reduction in what we can support on one IPv4 address, before someone comes up with an even cuter connection-use strategy...
:-(
The problem is that today, BitTorrent is a very bad citizen when it comes to port number use: it uses many connections, and it keeps them open for a long time.
I would assume that a "carrier grade NAT" would implement per-user port number limits. Hopefully these will be such that BitTorrent etc can still run at night when other users don't need the ports.
But the real solution would be update the BitTorrent implementations so that they use a single source port, or at least a very small number of source ports, which has two benefits: it uses up fewer ports and it's now possible to use ICE to compensate for the loss of UPnP and NAT-PMP.
So the future doesn't look too bleak (and that's not even including the ability to use native IPv6!) but the road getting there could be a bit bumpy.
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