http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1037/re101.htm
3 - 9 March 2011
Issue No. 1037
Colonel's curse
Oil-rich Libya's predicament is a precursor to self-serving Western meddling
which fuels fratricide, says Gamal Nkrumah
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The maverick Libyan leader cannot help but make his mark, with comic dashing
confidence of style and panache. The question is whether this is his last
stand. As an illustration of where power lies in Libya, several cities overrun
by anti-Muammar Gaddafi protesters in the west of the country, Tripolitania,
during the course of last week have reverted to Gaddafi's iron-fisted rule. As
Al-Ahram Weekly went to press, pro- Gaddafi forces spearheaded by the dreaded
Khamis Brigade, Libya's best-equipped force according to CIA reports, reclaimed
the strategic city of Zawiya less than 30km west of the Libyan capital Tripoli.
Click to view caption
A young protester chants slogans against Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi
during a demonstration opposing the regime in Tobruk
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The regaining of Zawiya by the Khamis Brigade, named after one of Gaddafi's
sons, was instructive in more ways than one. This was the latest lesson in how
brutal force might yet quell the Libyan popular uprising that has secured the
greater part of eastern Libya, Cyrenaica.
Misrata, too, Libya's third largest city in terms of population and also in
Tripolitania, also fell under pro-Gaddafi control -- or at least the air base
on its outskirts -- even though control of the city centre is still disputed
between pro- Gaddafi and anti-Gaddafi forces. He is digging his heels in.
All now depends on the willingness of anti- Gaddafi forces to fight the
military might of Gaddafi. The best bet on what action will be taken on the
political future of Libya is therefore full-force action on the military front
by local anti-Gaddafi forces. They have made it crystal clear that any
interference, military or otherwise, by Western powers will compromise their
cause. However, what is not quite so clear is whether they will do so in a fog
of uncertainty.
This incertitude suggests that the future of the country is liable to be shaped
increasingly by the Libyan armed forces and especially by the battalions headed
by Gaddafi's sons and close confidants. The militarisation of the conflict is
exacerbated by officers surrendering to protest in pockets across the country.
In this context, the declining enthusiasm in public opinion in western and
southern Libya in particular where most of Gaddafi's supporters are based is
troubling. Senior Libyan diplomats are defecting in droves. The most
high-profile being the UN Ambassador Abdel-Rahman Shalgam, who delivered an
impassioned plea for the international community to come to the rescue.
Gaddafi has already announced that wages and unemployment benefits are to be
hiked by a walloping 150 per cent. Libyans will be all the more tempted to
surrender to the seductive largesse of the Libyan leader.
Gaddafi is anything but the world's most entertaining zombie. If he had his
wits about him, he could have done so much more instead of squandering the
country's riches on arms. In spite of Libya's fabulous oil wealth and Gaddafi's
advocacy of socialism, a third of Libya's population live below the poverty
line.
He urged his supporters to chase away the "rats, gangsters, mercenaries and
vermin". He declared that since he holds no official title he cannot be ousted
from office. "I am not a president and therefore cannot step down. I am the
Revolution," he thundered.
In one of his most theatrical performances he confessed that if "my people do
not love me, then I deserve to die."
"Chase the rats and the agents provocateurs. Get the traitors and try them for
treachery and betrayal," he bellowed from above the Great Fort in the heart of
Tripoli in the Green Square that his opponents call Martyrs Square. The chaos
exploded around him as he took to his rickshaw wrapped in sackcloth and donning
a black turban, sporting a white umbrella and a grimace that warned of a
harrowing death to his detractors. His speeches were ominous.
The composition of his harangue, too, brings little good news. He admonished
the protesters as drug-crazed and spaced-out. He drew attention to the threat
of Al-Qaeda and forewarned that Libya would disintegrate into militant Islamist
emirates if his regime were to be toppled.
This last prophecy was obviously aimed at striking terror in the hearts of his
Western allies who were quick to desert their new-found "ally". His son and
heir apparent Seif Al-Islam evidently failed to do a better job of explaining
to the Libyan public and the world at large the economic and geopolitical
benefits of the Gaddafi regime hanging on to power. Both father and son
relinquished any desire of being a beacon of Western-style democracy at the
heart of a free, politically stable and prosperous North Africa.
"We refuse to be governed by the henchmen of Osama Bin Laden and the lackeys of
Western imperialists," Gaddafi thundered. Minister of Interior Abdel-Fattah
Younis was assassinated in Benghazi, traditionally the hotbed of revolution in
Libya and the city from which the anti- Gaddafi popular uprising was sparked.
The former minister of justice Mustafa Abdel-Jalil was named as head of the
interim government of what the anti-Gaddafi forces have pronounced the
"liberated" areas of the country. The self-proclaimed liberated areas are
largely restricted to the east of the country, Cyrenaica.
The tribal factor is of paramount importance in Libyan domestic politics and
Gaddafi has managed over the past four decades to manipulate tribal politics in
the country. He has persistently adopted a divide and rule policy with
lucrative enticements for those who cooperate with the regime and repressive
retribution for those who oppose his leadership. An estimated 15 per cent of
the Libyan population have no tribal affiliations and they are predominantly
urbanites in Tripoli and Benghazi, respectively the largest and second largest
urban centres in the country. Gaddafi has threatened to arm the tribes, even
though his opponents claim that he is relying primarily on African mercenaries,
a claim disputed by Gaddafi and his son Seif Al-Islam who dismissed the idea
they would stoop so low since "half of the Libyan population is black".
Yet tribal politics is a prickly question in Libya. First, the tribes do not
have universally acknowledged chieftains. Second, even as Gaddafi pledged to
open up the arsenals, the youths of the tribes are unlikely to blindly follow
their tribal elders.
Even the Gaddafa, a relatively small tribe of mixed Arab and Amazigh heritage,
is not assured. Gaddafi's own first cousin Ahmed Gaddaf Al-Dam has abandoned
his mentor's cause and defected to the anti-Gaddafi camp renouncing his cousin
and decrying his "excesses and outrages". It is suspected, however, that the
real motive for Gaddaf Al-Dam's defection is his fear of losing control over
his extensive business interests in Egypt and other Arab countries.
The Gaddafa trace their roots to Sidi Gaddaf Al-Dam, a renowned saintly figure
buried in Al-Gharyan south of Tripoli. They were, like most of Libya's other
major tribes, essentially nomadic until recently. The Gaddafa inhabit an
extensive arid area centred around Sirte, Gaddafi's own birthplace. Sirte has
been declared the administrative capital of Libya and is considered a Gaddafi
stronghold. The Gaddafa consider themselves Murabitin, saintly, and Ashraf, of
the lineage of the Prophet Mohamed, attributes that have long been manipulated
by Gaddafi and his fellow Gaddafa to form a ruling clique.
One of the country's largest and most influential tribes, Al-Warfelli, seem to
have turned against Gaddafi. Akram Al-Warfelli, leading figure of Al-Warfella
and in control of Libya's security forces personnel, called on Gaddafi to stand
down.
A complicating factor is that Libya's tribes are subdivided into clans and
leading families with conflicting interests.
The Saadi confederation is led by the numerous and influential Baraasa tribe of
Al-Bayda. Gaddafi's second wife Safeya Farkash Al-Baraasa and Seif Al-Islam, in
his famous apologetic televised address to prop up his father's regime referred
to his "uncles of Al-Bayda" in a vain attempt to woo his maternal familial
connections.
Another powerful tribal grouping is the Maghara many of whom are loyal to
Gaddafi because he secured the release of Abdel-Baset Al-Megrahi from a
Scottish jail in 2009 for his role in the downing of the American Pan-Am
airliner over the village of Lockerbie, Scotland. Al-Megrahi, a prominent
member of the Maghara, was head of Libyan intelligence, and members of the
Maghara tribe predominate in the Libyan state security apparatus.
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