http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-03-280313.html
Mar 28, '13 The Syrianization of Syria rolls on By Victor Kotsev Perhaps years from now, a new term along the lines of "Syrianization" will take over the significance of the sweeping (and some say inaccurate) concept of Balkanization. The northern Levant is quickly overtaking every other part of the world as the paradigm of complete fragmentation of a geographic and political entity. It is hard to tell who or what is falling apart more quickly: the regime, the opposition, or the possibility of reaching international consensus over the civil war which has killed at least 70,000 people so far, a figure that former United Nations secretary general and envoy to Syria Kofi Annan called in a recent Reuters interview "a gross under-estimation". Shortly after a symbolic Arab League summit in which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's place was taken by a rebel leader (who had himself resigned from his position several days prior to the meeting), Annan said that it was "too late" for either a military intervention or arming the opposition. "My own view is that as late as it is we have to find a way of pouring water on the fire rather than the other way around," he added. The North Atlantic Treaty Alliance also rebuffed a request by Moaz al-Khatib, the acting head of the Syrian National Coalition, to deploy Patriot missiles based in Turkey to protect northern Syria from regime air strikes. "I'm scared that this will be a message to the Syrian regime telling it 'Do what you want'," al-Khatib told Reuters bitterly. Nevertheless, the Arab League summit in Doha backed soundly weapons shipments to the rebels and a somber al-Khatib was shown opening the first opposition embassy in the Qatari capital on Wednesday. He refused to elaborate on his political plans, after resigning on Sunday, but the defiant tone he struck at the meeting-telling Arab rulers to "fear God in dealing with your people" and calling on them to free political prisoners-suggested he is not looking to patch up relations. His resignation came after a complex intrigue orchestrated by Qatar and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, which resulted in the election as a Ghassan Hitto, a Syrian Kurd who has spent decades living in the US, to head a provisional rebel government. The Qataris had intended Hitto to represent the opposition on Tuesday instead of al-Khatib, but outcry among the political representatives as well as the military leaders of the rebels (some of whom refused to recognize the transitional government) forced them to reconsider. According to a report in the Washington Post, the Muslim Brotherhood (which is backed by Qatar) sought to regain through Hitto's appointment "some of the influence lost when the original Syrian opposition body, the Syrian National Council, was absorbed into the wider Syrian coalition" last November. The move, however, upset the tenuous balance between the diverse rebel groups. "The coalition is on verge of disintegrating," a Syrian history professor living in the US told the Post. "It's a big mess." [1] Rebel unity has always been a bit of a fiction. Al-Khatib, a moderate former imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, sought to present himself as a conciliatory figure, but he also frequently drew criticism from different groups, for example for extending an offer of negotiations to the regime earlier this year. Recently, however, things have gotten worse on the ground, to the point where different rebel groups are on the verge of an open war with each other. Particularly bad is the divide between more secular opposition groups and Islamists such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the al-Qaeda-linked Jabhat al-Nusra. In this context, al-Khatib's departure is seen by many as a victory for the extremists. A recent Time Magazine story documented major clashes between Jabhat al-Nusra and the Farouq Brigades, another prominent rebel group. "They are just here to try and impose their rules on us," Farouq's commander Mohammad al-Daher told journalist Rania Abouzeid shortly before being injured in one of several successive attempts on his life. [2] Moreover, Riad al-Asaad, the top commander of the Free Syrian Army of which the Farouq Brigades are a part, was injured on Monday in a car bomb attack that was attributed to the Syrian regime. However, what is known about the circumstances of his injury shows some remarkable similarities with the methods used to target al-Daher. A full-blown civil war among the rebels is not out of question. In fact, the period when the Syrian civil war could be described as having two sides may be over. Numerous other rifts besides the moderate-extremist divide, such as the Kurdish issue and the private interests of a myriad of rebel fiefdoms throughout the country, are rearing their heads. A little-known issue that could be likened to the east-west divide in Libya is the rift between north and south, exemplified by the rivalry of the two largest cities in Syria, Aleppo and Damascus. "Many Damascenes are fearful of being overrun by the North," wrote in his blog Joshua Landis, a prominent Syria expert at the University of Oklahoma. "The time-honored divide between North and South Syria is again gaining relevance. There is precedence for war between north and south. In 1954, at the end of General Shishakli's four year rule of Syria, which developed into the country's first real dictatorship, Syria split in half." [3] "Opposition guys from Damascus had expressed to me that they hope Europe will train and arm forces in the South to take Damascus to keep the Islamists and Aleppines from taking it," Landis added in a personal email. The Obama administration, by contrast, "remains extremely cautious about undertaking any Middle East initiative." Last week, Britain and France advocated arming the rebels at a meeting of European foreign ministers, in what was widely seen as defiance of US policy. However, they received little support, and now with opposition unity in tatters and both political and military blows being exchanged on the ground, it seems that at least the public push has hit a dead end. Other disagreements, included reportedly between Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, could also get in the way of a more concerted effort to bring down the Syrian regime. Not to mention, of course, Assad's allies Russia and Iran. Meanwhile, the rebels are certainly receiving weapons-and plundering them from captured army bases-and, according to some reports have managed to kill as many as 13,000 regime soldiers. The noose around Damascus is slowly tightening, and many observers believe that the fall of the capital is a matter of time. "I do think Assad will lose Damascus eventually," wrote Landis. "It is a Sunni city. The battle will be devastating, however." It remains to be seen who disintegrates first: the regime or the main rebel groups opposing it. If a civil war of a type where everybody is fighting everybody else erupts, there may be no winners in Syria at all. Notes: 1. Syrian opposition in disarray as its leader resigns, The Washington Post, March 24, 2013. 2. In Syria, the Rebels Have Begun to Fight Among Themselves, Time, March 26, 2013. 3. Moaz al-Khatib, Moderate Syrian Leader, Resigns, as Islamic Front and Nusra Move on Damascus. Will the US build a Counter-force?, March 24, 2013. Victor Kotsev is a journalist and political analyst. (Copyright 2013 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing ) [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
