http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/SEA-01-080714.html
Jul 8, '14
Cornucopia of promises at Indonesian polls
By James Bean
Indonesians go to the ballot boxes this Wednesday to choose a president from
two candidates who hail from starkly different backgrounds. Exhibiting
diametrically opposite in personalities and campaign styles, they have
whipsawed the nation into one of the tightest of races in the nation's
post-1998 political history.
If recent polls are accurate, the leads claimed by either camp are so narrow
that the margin of error in polling may actually render changes in voters'
support statistically insignificant. Indonesia's media has meticulously
recorded the promises and key statements of the candidates, which is in
contrast to English-language coverage.
The nation's leading English-language newspaper, The Jakarta Post, recently
took the unprecedented step of coming out in support of career politician and
incumbent Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo and his septuagenarian running mate,
former vice president Jusuf Kalla. Widodo, or "Jokowi" as he is fondly known,
has had a popularity boost from widespread discomfort with the association of
his opponent, Prabowo Subianto, with past human rights abuses.
Over the weekend, The Jakarta Post reported that the National Human Rights
Commission officially endorsed the Jokowi-Kalla ticket, citing Prabowo's
"involvement in kidnapping pro-democracy activists amid the fall of his former
father-in-law Suharto in May 1998".
Overseas, a fiercely anti-Prabowo line has emerged among political
commentators, including leading academics at Australian National University.
Their popular online magazine New Mandala has turned out a litany of scathing
critiques dismissing Prabowo as a Putinist authoritarian and dictator
in-waiting. Prabowo has responded to the criticism, asserting in a recent
interview his commitment to democracy and upholding the Indonesian
constitution.
But what happens if Prabowo wins, as some polls now indicate? What will a
Prabowo-Hatta administration look like? And in the same scenario, what are the
promises and cabinet choices his Merah-Putih ("Red & White") coalition will
have to confront before it runs the country?
Prabowo's political party, the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra,
first emerged during the 2009 legislative elections, where it secured 26 seats
in the House of Representatives, representing around 4.5% of the vote. Gerindra
almost tripled its share of the vote last May, coming in third with nearly 12%,
behind Indonesia's established political parties PDI-P and Golkar.
In other words, the message (and the machine) is getting through to the
electorate. But, what is Prabowo's message? One commentator observed that "he
adopts the body of [independence hero] Sukarno, but in language, he imitates
[former dictator] Suharto."
There is certainly a defensive quality to his oratory, warning in speeches the
nation against "sticking their heads in the sand in the face of danger" and
enjoining them to "protect our territory, our sovereignty" and dream of an
Indonesia that is "revered" (disegani) not "trodden on by other nations".
As a career soldier and former acolyte of his autocratic father-in-law, that is
hardly surprising. There's also no doubt that Prabowo exudes a steely
determination, and it is winning him votes. But his economic mantra is also
persuading many Indonesians, an aspect of his campaign that has attracted very
little scrutiny overseas.
Channeling his inner-Clinton - "it's the economy, stupid" - most of Prabowo's
promises relate to the economy. Whether it is decrying waste or aiming his
fervent oratory at economic inequality, Prabowo appears to be aware of the
magnitude of the economic challenges ahead, arguing forcefully that economic
growth would have to increase to double the current levels of 5-6% of gross
domestic product if Indonesia is to avoid a middle-income trap.
Jokowi and Kalla are significantly less forthcoming and decisive on their
economic diagnosis and policy prescriptions. However, this lack of clarity on
economic policy has not deterred overseas markets, which have signaled broadly
a preference for a Jokowi-Kalla ticket.
Prabowo-Hatta's promises
a.. 250% increase in average minimum wages to around US$500 per month, much to
the consternation of Indonesia's business elite.
a.. Abolishing outsourced labor and labor brokers' response to demands by
Indonesia's largest labor union.
a.. Getting The Dirt Flying: Massive infrastructure development, including
3,000 kilometers of roads and 3,000 kilometers of rail across Indonesia.
a.. One Billion Per Village: Prabowo has promised Indonesia's roughly 74,000
villages one billion rupiah per year per village, which some quarters have
pointed out is already being implemented.
a.. Free education up to and including tuition at public universities.
a.. Big tax push to raise collection from the current 12% of GDP to 17%.
a.. Doubling the Corruption Eradication Commission's current operating budget.
a.. 1,000% wage increase for Indonesia's 1.2 million honorary teachers.
a.. 50-67% reduction in the nationwide fuel subsidy over 3-5 years.
a.. Weaning Indonesia off public foreign debt and making the most of
consolidated revenues.
Jokowi-Kalla's promises
a.. Jokowi recently promised 10 million new jobs and his mission statement
refers to systematic salary increases for public servants and security service
personnel.
a.. The Jokowi-Kalla platform on labor reform is focused on legal reform, the
provision of workers' housing, albeit with a caveat on controlling inflation.
a.. Rehabilitation of three million Ha of irrigation-based agricultural land,
25 dams, and 5,000 traditional markets.
a.. Jokowi has promised even higher disbursements to villages in addition to a
targeted household subsidy for disadvantaged families, and poverty alleviation
measures.
a.. Jokowi-Kalla have matched Prabowo-Hatta's promise on free education, to be
further entrenched by compulsory education laws.
a.. Wide-ranging agrarian land reform, including redistribution of nine million
hectares of land, protecting customary rights over land, opening one million
hectares of land for dry land agriculture, and increased investment in rural
areas.
a.. Jokowi-Kalla have signaled their support for the commission, in addition to
foreshadowing the resolution of past human rights incidents and a comprehensive
review of Indonesia's military justice system.
a.. Buy-back of telecommunications giant Indosat that was sold off in 1998 by
Megawati Sukarnoputri.
a.. Transition from imported fuel and Indonesia's corpulent fuel subsidy to
domestically sourced natural gas and biofuels, including a 30% reduction in
private transport through a raft of public/mass transport initiatives.
a.. Extensive wildlife and environmental conservation policy, including a
massive reforestation target of 2 million hectares to be rehabilitated per
year.
The obvious question for either candidate is how they can afford to implement
and realize these ambitious promises over a five-year timeframe. An equally
important consideration is who will be given the ministerial portfolios charged
with championing these changes?
Based on last May's parliamentary election results, the Jokowi-Kalla ticket
secured approximately 40% of DPRI seats with the Merah-Putih coalition picking
up the balance. In recent weeks, the Indonesian media - to say nothing of the
elite rumor mill - has been afire with stories of cabinet deals, the most
recent concerning Central Java Vice Governor Rustriningsih turning her back on
the PDI-P and announcing her support for the Prabowo-Hatta ticket.
This means that despite the rhetoric, cabinet composition deals must already be
well advanced. Both candidates have sought to disparage commentary predicting
that cabinet appointments have already been brokered. In reality, both camps
know that they will have to come clean with voters at some point on their
intra-coalition cabinet deals. In terms of cabinet selection, here's what has
been promised or strongly implied through the media:
Prabowo-Hatta's cabinet hints
a.. Both Prabowo, Golkar party officials, and Golkar chairman Aburizal Bakrie
himself have hinted that Bakrie is the presumptive Menteri Utama, an anomalous,
potentially unconstitutional ministry.
a.. Said Aqil Siroj, chairman of Indonesia's largest Sunni Muslim organization,
Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), has indirectly confirmed that NU has dibs on the Minister
for Religious Affairs.
a.. Labor union leader and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) member Said Iqbal is
on record saying that by entering into a political contract with the nation's
largest union, it is reasonable for either himself or someone from Indonesia's
nearly 70-year-old teacher's union, PGRI, to be offered a cabinet slot.
a.. Whilst Prabowo is on the record denying that the Education Ministry is the
province of conservative Muslim party PKS, the latter has a history of coveting
the education, agriculture, and social affairs ministries.
a.. Prabowo has pledged that 30% of his cabinet will be filled by women, adding
that if he does not follow through on the vow he will be "impeached" by his own
party.
a.. Special forces mandarin, son of communist purge leader Sarwo Edhie, and
incumbent President Yudhoyono's brother-in-law, Pramono Edhie Wibowo is the
most important person from the Democrat Party to accommodate within a
Merah-Putih cabinet.
Jokowi-Kalla's cabinet hints
a.. Incumbent Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Chairul Tanjung and
senior economist Faisal Basri have been name-dropped as the economic brains of
a Jokowi-Kalla cabinet.
a.. The chairman of coalition partner The National Awakening Party, Muhaimin
Iskandar, confirmed that a Jokowi-Kalla cabinet would also defer to NU for this
slot.
a.. Despite Jokowi's careful denials, National Democrat Party founder and media
mogul Surya Paloh is almost assured a prominent role in cabinet, most likely
Minister of Communications and Information Technology.
a.. Highly ambitious intellectual Anies Baswedan has been at pains to deny that
he has been offered the Education and Cultural Affairs Ministry.
a.. Prabowo's pledge on appointing women to key roles is matched by
Jokowi-Kalla, although it is not as explicit in relation to cabinet composition
as Prabowo-Hatta promises.
a.. With a promised threefold increase in defense spending, likely Indonesian
National Armed Forces interlocutors are seen as Ryamizard Ryacudu, A M
Hendropriyono, Tedjo Edi, and Luhut Pandjaitan. Ultimately, it will come down
to who PDI-P powerbrokers such as Megawati and Tjahjo Kumolo feel most
comfortable dealing with.
Refreshingly, and something of a first for Indonesia, the foreign minister
portfolio is spoilt for choice. At first glance, the slot is a toss-up between
the incumbent Marty Natalegawa and the much-respected former government
spokesman and momentary presidential hopeful Dino Djalal. Both are career
diplomats and have been coy about their prospects.
Whilst Jokowi is likely to reinstate Natalegawa, it's unclear if Prabowo would
tap him, as some have suggested, or pick Djalal given his stronger association
with the Democrat Party. Another tantalizing possibility is veteran Golkar
politician and United Nations diplomat Marzuki Darusman.
Indonesia's economy needs a safe pair of hands to sustain the recent period of
strong growth. Something of a dark horse in this election is leading Indonesian
economist and World Bank managing director Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
Both camps have a history of courting her. Two years ago, Sri Mulyani was
mooted by Gerindra as a candidate for vice president. Earlier this year,
Jokowi's people considered her for their vice presidential candidate before
settling on the more politically connected Kalla.
Recalling that her resignation as finance minister in 2010 roiled markets, it's
entirely possible that her reinstatement might have the opposite effect. For
Sri Mulyani to join a Prabowo-Hatta administration, however, would require a
Herculean effort at persuading Bakrie, whose animosity towards her is well
documented.
Regardless of which candidate wins the election, whoever is installed at the
key economic portfolios will face a tall order in balancing ambitious election
promises and wary global financial markets. Indeed, the sheer weight and scale
of the cornucopia of promises made by both presidential candidates may well sow
the seeds of their respective coalition's eventual disintegration.
If Prabowo is to keep faith with the various promises he has made and honor the
inducements offered to other parties and individuals needed to build his
Merah-Putih Coalition, his presidency and new cabinet will likely face
tremendous pressure from the outset. This is especially true if the resurgence
of activism awakened by the Jokowi-Kalla campaign shifts gears and stays
mobilized in opposition to a Prabowo-Hatta administration.
Jokowi, on the other hand, will most likely experience a honeymoon period where
voters and markets are satisfied that the "good guys" won - until, that is, his
administration starts to renege on its various campaign trail promises.
James Bean is a PhD candidate with The Australian National University's School
of International, Political, and Strategic Studies. He may be reached by e-mail
at [email protected]
(Copyright 2014 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us about sales, syndication and republishing
