ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO, Rs673.25, NEUTRAL [V], TP Rs673.00)ICRA downgrades
car loan pools: Asset quality concerns continue says Credit Suisse·
ICRA has downgraded five auto loan securitisation pools originated by
ICICI Bank – both used and new cars; this follows downgrades earlier
this year by CRISIL for auto/CV/personal loan pools.· An analysis of 29
ICRA-rated ICICI Bank new car pools demonstrates that 1) both 90 and
180-day delinquencies for pools of recent vintage are significantly
higher than those of older pools (please see Figure 2) 2) delinquency
levels for individual pools continue to rise over the quarters (data
until March-08).· The continuing downgrades and pool performance data
reflect that delinquencies across retail lending segments remain higher
than expected for ICICI Bank, and are a cause for concern.· This also
implies that ICICI would have to put up higher collateral levels to
attain AAA ratings for new securitisation transactions – this would
increase capital requirement and affect the economics.· Deteriorating
credit quality continued to show in 1QFY3/09 when delinquency rose
sharply, and net NPLs rose 30bp QoQ despite rising loan provisioning –
we remain concerned on asset quality.Safe Harbor Statement:Some forward
looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook
are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects.
Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on
account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax
regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within
which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest
rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product
demand and supply constraints.Nothing in this article is, or should be
construed as, investment advice.
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Posted By Ronald Chisley to Investor Forums at 8/18/2008 09:11:00 PM
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