At 6:03 PM +0000 2/1/02, Tim Chown wrote:
>If that's static /48's, the /29 boundary will need revision...(and
>certainly a /35 would be useless to any medium ISP).
Yes, those boundaries are currently under discussion in the registry
community, and I certainly expect them to change. (Though as pointed
out by Tony, those were intended just as *initial* allocations to ISPs
before they have many IPv6 customers; ISPs with lots of customers will
get bigger blocks, and if it works out as planned, in most cases those
larger blocks will include the initial smaller blocks, so that assigning
more space to an ISP won't increase the number of routes to that ISP
(but rather just shrink the prefix of the existing route).
>Would you apply the RFC3194 0.8 HD ratio to subnets within a single ISP?
No, the plan as I understand it is to apply the HD ratio to the number
of /48s, when evaluating an ISP's application for more address space.
>I don't see that provider networks would be flat or near 100% utilisation
>as you suggest in your previous email.
No, and that's not what the policies under discussion in the RIRs assume.
By the way, if I've operated my calculator correctly, there are
approximately 35 trillion /48s in the 001-prefix part of the IPv6 address
space. Applying the HD ratio calculation to that number yields:
HD = .80 ("manageable") = 70 billion
HD = .85 ("painful") = 330 billion
HD = .87 ("practical limit") = 610 billion
(using U.S. definition of "billion", i.e., 10^9)
I read a reference to an article recently (in Science or some comparable
journal; I really need to hunt it down) that stated that the current
world population is about 6.1 billion and that population scientists
are projecting that human population will hit its peak sometime around
2070, though the predicted peak number varies widely between 9 and 12
billion.
If that's so, and taking high end of that prediction (12 billion), we
ought to be able to assign a half a dozen (70 billion / 12 billion)
static /48s to every living human (not just every "site" or household),
hierarchically structured for routing and allocation, at a manageable
HD ratio of 80%. And remember that's just with the 001 space. We can
use the rest of the space for the animals, aliens, robots and non-living
humans.
Steve
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