I see that the local use address draft has been revised and published as a WG document.
In section 3.2.2 of the draft, it notes that, in reference to Locally Assigned Global IDs that "the likelihood of conflict is small. "
I had noted in draft-huston-ipv6-local-use-comments-00.txt that the likelihood of conflict is given by the formula:
P = 1 - ((n!) / ((n**d)(n-d)!))
where n = 2**40 and d is the number of random 'draws' from the pool.
The likelihood of conflict exceeds 0.5 after only 1.24 million draws. I'd contend that this is definitely not "small" as described in the draft.
It appears to me that the comment in this section of the unique local addr draft is misleading, and I'd like to request that this section of the draft be replaced with a more rigorous mathematical analysis of the probability of collision.
Thanks,
Geoff
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