Geoff,

Now I understand your argument, I don't think it holds water.
The fact that there is a 50% chance of a conflict somewhere inside
a set of a million enterprises doesn't bother me in the least.

If an enterprise has direct interconnection to 2**8 other enterprises,
in a space of 2**40 random numbers, that enterprise is looking at a 
2**-32 chance of hitting a conflict and being forced to renumber. 
That's acceptable.

Even if an enterprise expects direct interconnecion to 2**20 other 
enterprises, the chance of having to renumber is 2**-20, i.e. one
in a million. That's probably acceptable.

If an enterprise network manager doesn't think it's acceptable,
s/he can wait until IANA has set up the centrally allocated solution,
or use a PA prefix.

   Brian

Geoff Huston wrote:
> 
> You are correct in that the "conflicts" matters at the point that the two sites
> want to interact in such a fashion that the expose their local use addresses
> to each other, now or at any time in the future.
> 
> Now if you have a random selection algorithm that truly has 2**40 bits
> of entropy the chances of any two identified random draws from
> this space having a clash remains 1 / (2**40), but if you take the total
> pool of such randomly drawn numbers and ask "how big does the pool
> need to get to lift the change of a clash within the pool above 0.5?",
> then the pool size is 1.24 million. If the expectation that this address
> format is to be used extensively for local connectivity independently of
> upstream connectivity then I would contend that uniqueness is essential,
> and the local selection methodology should not be proposed, as its
> uniqueness properties are flawed.
> 
> So I suppose I am saying that this is "nowhere near unique", and that if
> the entire idea
> of this concept is to avoid the use of reused private RFC1918-styled addresses
> and the associated NAT functionality, then this local selection algorithm
> should
> not be included in this proposal.
> 
>     regards,
> 
>     Geoff
> 
> At 10:03 AM 28/08/2003 -0400, Hans Kruse wrote:
> >But don't "conflicts" matter only for separate sites that later decide to
> >connect to each other using these addresses?
> >
> >In that context 1 out of 1.24 million seems small.  That does not mean we
> >should not include that math, just that the conclusion is valid,
> >especially for an address type that is designed to be near-unique as
> >opposed to guaranteed unique.
> >
> >--On Thursday, August 28, 2003 08:14 +1000 Geoff Huston <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> >wrote:
> >
> >>The likelihood of conflict exceeds 0.5 after only 1.24 million draws. I'd
> >>contend that this is definitely not "small" as described in the draft.
> >
> >
> >
> >Hans Kruse, Associate Professor
> >J. Warren McClure School of Communication Systems Management
> >Adjunct Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
> >Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701
> >740-593-4891 voice, 740-593-4889 fax
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-- 
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Brian E Carpenter 
Distinguished Engineer, Internet Standards & Technology, IBM 

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