> - a set of us pick numbers from a pool, and we compare numbers. The
> probability that two or us have picked the same number is the case where
> a random draw function exceeds 0.5 after 1.24 million random draws.
> The general solution of the probability of a collision after d draws
> from n possible values is given by:
>
> P = 1 - ((n!) / ((n**d)((n-d)!)))
>
> Given that the value for n here is 2.199,023,255,552, then the objective
> is to find the lowest value of d for which P is greater than or equal
> to 0.5. In this case the value for d is some 1.24 million.
and this is based on a true random selection, yes?
and we KNOW that humans are good at selecting truely
random numbers. e.g. "whats your favorite number between
1 and 2,199,023,255,552? ... that would be 42."
> i.e. if we all pick numbers and stuff them into the DNS, then by the
> time the 1,240,000 selection had taken place the probability that a
> collision has occurred exceeds 0.5
to Geo... the collision occurs at the point of intersection,
be it when these sites interconnect or when they share a common
namespace.
> regards,
>
> Geoff
--bill
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