Israel's next move Why has Tel Aviv's response to the Qassam rocket attack on a military base Tuesday been so muted? Saleh Al-Naami seeks answers in Gaza
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was woken at exactly 1.55am Tuesday morning by his military secretary to be told 69 Israeli soldiers had been wounded at the Zikim military base north of the Gaza Strip 20 minutes earlier. The operation was launched by Al-Quds Brigades -- the military wing of Islamic Jihad -- and the Victorious Salaheddin Brigades, the military wing of the Popular Resistance Committees. The news put Olmert in a difficult position. A successful Palestinian resistance operation had stolen the spotlight from the military operations he had recently ordered on Syrian territory and which he described as "very successful". Olmert resisted the attempts of ministers and army leaders who tried to convince him to order a massive military operation in the Gaza Strip. He stressed that the Israeli response would be in keeping with the policy determined by the ministerial committee for security affairs in its recent meetings, under which Israel could cut off electricity from the Gaza Strip for a certain number of hours each day and intensify special military operations in the Gaza Strip carried out by elite Israeli units in response to the missiles that resistance movements fire at Jewish settlements in the Negev region. Israel also carries out assassinations of political officials in the Hamas movement, claiming the popular resistance committees that take part in firing the missiles are funded by Hamas and work according to its agenda. The missiles, say Israel, are often made by the Ezzeddin Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas. The Israeli media has debated the justifications Olmert presented in closed meetings with ministers and the heads of his security agencies for not waging a wide-scale campaign in Gaza. He warned that such an operation would put an end to rising tensions between Fatah and Hamas, and stressed that he fears Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) would open dialogue with Hamas. According to Olmert, the danger in Fatah and Hamas talking is that it will terminate coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority over reaching an agreement on principles for a solution to the conflict with the Palestinian people. Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni supports Olmert's position. She says Israel is "reaping all the benefits" in the ongoing communication with Abu Mazen. She argues that this dialogue enhances Israel's international standing and at the same time facilitates an environment in which it is difficult for regional powers to pressure Tel Aviv. "[It] makes the world understanding about our military responses to the provocations of terrorist organisations," she told the Israeli television. The Israeli Deputy Minister of Defence Matan Vilnaai also believes a wide-scale Israeli campaign in the Gaza Strip might force Abu Mazen to halt coordination and security cooperation with Israel in confronting Hamas. "When the president of the Palestinian Authority stands in the same trench as Israel in confronting Palestinian extremists... that must be held on to," he told Hebrew-language Israeli radio. Israeli army manoeuvres in the Negev desert as they train to invade Gaza City have made commanders aware that such an operation is likely to lead to considerable losses among soldiers. At the same time, given the tense conditions on the northern front following the military operation Israel conducted in Syria, Olmert fears confrontations breaking out there which would make it even more difficult to manage a successful military campaign in the Gaza Strip. According to the estimates of the Israeli chief of staff, it would be necessary to call up two divisions of reserve forces -- i.e. an extra 30,000 Israeli troops -- to supplement the regular brigades. Yet even Olmert and his supporters stress that should the missiles fired by the resistance movements result in the loss of a large number of settlers, a wide-scale operation will become inevitable. Many decision-makers in Israel view the continued shelling of Israeli territory as a clear sign of the collapse of any Israeli deterrent. Avi Dichter, minister of domestic security, is typical when he argues that "the Palestinians' boldness in continuing to launch missiles stems from Israel's loss of deterring force". Dichter believes the government must issue instructions to the army to act quickly to "produce deterring force" to counter the Palestinian resistance. The right-wing opposition in Israel is enthusiastic about a military campaign in the Gaza Strip, believing it will force the collapse of the Hamas government. Gideon Saar, head of the Likud Party bloc in the Knesset, has said that reoccupying the Gaza Strip has become essential in the wake of the Hamas takeover. On the Palestinian side things are also complicated. Abu Mazen has repeated that the resistance's firing of missiles is "outrageous". His government, and the Fatah leadership, disapprove of the shelling operation because it harms their media campaign against Hamas. The joy expressed by Palestinians following the operation has led to fears that they might seek a renewed unity behind the strategic choice of resistance. Abu Mazen also fears that if the resistance operations continue with such success, Olmert may be led to close off negotiations under pressure from colleagues in his government, his adversaries in the opposition and Israeli public opinion. These negotiations are what have guaranteed the supportive international environment for Abu Mazen that assists him in his confrontation with Hamas. There are differences between the two movements responsible for the attacks in terms of timing, place, and the scope of resistance activity. The popular resistance committees are Hamas's closest allies in the Palestinian arena. Their members fought alongside Hamas in the confrontations that preceded Hamas taking control of the Gaza Strip. As such, the successes of the popular resistance committees are seen as the successes of Hamas. But as far as the Jihad movement is concerned, despite recent improvements in its relations with Hamas, the spirit of competition between the two over support from the "Islamic street" continues regardless of the vast difference in the size and presence of their organisations. The Jihad movement never passes up the opportunity to stress its military successes, believing these place it in the vanguard of resistance and constitute a more significant achievement than that of Hamas in government. Khadr Habib, a leader in the movement, says, "the Dawn of Victory Operation [the name given to the missile attack] was like a call to Fatah and Hamas to return to the trench of resistance and to leave aside the trouble of ruling an entity that does not exist."
