The point I'm trying to make is that there is a *reason* that we haven't had a 50m person pandemic since 1918. Medical care and sanitation have greatly improved. I don't think we will ever have a pandemic like that again, at least not from any form of flu. The biggest killers today more boring diseases like malaria, which kill far more people, or sanitation related illnesses like dysentery. It's to Bill Gate's credit that he chose to tackle the less glamorous Malaria (the worlds #1 infectious disease) over other diseases that get more press.
On Apr 29, 2009, at 9:30 AM, Jess Holle wrote: > Joshua Marinacci wrote: >> >> And when was the last pandemic? 90 years ago? > There abouts, yes. > > Most health experts are convinced another one will occur, however -- > especially given the speed and quantity of travel today. > > The question is when -- but there seems to be agreement that the > current swine flu outbreak isn't it. >> On Apr 29, 2009, at 9:01 AM, Jess Holle wrote: >>> True enough -- for most flus. >>> >>> Health officials are quite worried of something like the last flu >>> pandemic, though -- in that it caused healthy people's immune >>> systems to go into overdrive and hit the young healthy adults hard. >>> >>> Sure we have antivirals, etc, now, but it's not clear that they'd >>> be enough in terms of efficacy or quantity. >>> >>> Health officials are generally not worried that the current >>> strains of swine flu have this potential, though. The swine flu's >>> potency does not appear to be anywhere near that of the bird flu >>> of a few years back and that was nothing like the potency of the >>> last flu pandemic. There's reason to worry, but there's no clear >>> reason to worry that much about *this* outbreak -- unless your >>> immune system is already on shaky ground or you have no access to >>> good health care. >>> >>> -- >>> Jess Holle >>> >>> Joshua Marinacci wrote: >>>> >>>> When *treated* the flu annoying rather than fatal. When you hear >>>> about millions of people dying of the flu (like what used to happen >>>> every 30 years or so in centuries past) it was because of lack of >>>> sanitation, lack of healthcare, lack of clean water, etc. It is >>>> very >>>> rare for a healthy person in a first world nation to die of the >>>> flu. >>>> - J >>>> >>>> On Apr 28, 2009, at 12:02 AM, [email protected] wrote: >>>> >>>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>>> Da : James Williams <[email protected]> >>>>> A : The Java Posse <[email protected]> >>>>> Oggetto : [The Java Posse] Re: Noro Virus on JavaOne 2008, >>>>> Swine Flu on JavaOne 2009? >>>>> Data : Mon, 27 Apr 2009 23:29:57 -0700 (PDT) >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>> I think the EU was a bit premature in their >>>>>> recommendations. >>>>>> >>>>> Indeed EU didn't make (yet) any specific recommendations on >>>>> travels. The EU "health minister" spoke "on her own behalf" >>>>> (clearly public officers shouldn't talk on their own behalf >>>>> and it was an unfortunate action). >>>>> >>>>> Nobody knows what will happen three weeks from now. The >>>>> spread could be worse or better; from my point of view I'm >>>>> interested in being explained why there have been dead >>>>> people in Mexico and no in USA or elsewhere (as numbers >>>>> increase, it becomes less and less likely to be just due to >>>>> low figures). It could turn out that there is some specific >>>>> worsening factor in Mexico and the bug is less dangerous as >>>>> we think. I repeat, who knows. It's useless to think about >>>>> it _now_. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> f.g. >>>>> >>>>> -- >>>>> Fabrizio Giudici, Ph.D. - Java Architect, Project Manager >>>>> Tidalwave s.a.s. - "We make Java work. Everywhere." >>>>> weblogs.java.net/blog/fabriziogiudici - >>>>> www.tidalwave.it/blog >>>>> [email protected] - mobile: +39 348.150.6941 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> > > > > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "The Java Posse" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/javaposse?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
