Karsten Silz wrote:
On Feb 1, 3:24 pm, Fabrizio Giudici <[email protected]>
wrote:
Of course, there's the free market. If things were always like today, I
wouldn't be worried. But listening to opinions that see the marked
divided by iPhone and Android, I'd be worried in perspective.
I think that the smartphone market will mature in the next few years
and settle on three (maybe four) operating systems. That's not unlike
many other IT areas - desktop OS (Windows, OS X, Linux), server OS
(Windows, Linux, Unix - if you can lump all the different Unix
versions together), commercial databases (Oracle, DB2, SQL Server),
commercial app servers (IBM WebSphere, Oracle Weblogic, JBoss) and so
on. Somehow, the disadvantages of having less choice and less
competition are outweighed by the advantages of limitation (less
effort required for developers, hardware / add-on manufacturers, and
admins) at "three". I think in economy, mature markets are often
dominated by a few players (e.g., Coke/Pepsi), too.
While some of those "mature markets" aren't often free enough for my
standards (I'll never - with a few occasional exceptions - drink or eat
anything industrially produced that I don't know what is made of), I
agree that reducing the name of players can have *also* some advantages.
But it depends on the details: being free or not, all the three desktop
/ server operating systems allow me to install and run what I want (and
usually I can choose which o.s. I'll install on my computer); iPhone
doesn't.
--
Fabrizio Giudici - Java Architect, Project Manager
Tidalwave s.a.s. - "We make Java work. Everywhere."
java.net/blog/fabriziogiudici - www.tidalwave.it/people
[email protected]
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